The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which is the global representative body for the airline industry, has predicted that global air passenger demand will increase by more than 100% by 2050 (with 2024 being the baseline). This is the forecast in its recently released Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP).

Over this period, the fastest-growing market segment will be intra-African travel, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9%, while the second fastest growing segment will be Africa-Asia Pacific, at 4.5%. (Africa-North America will be the fifth fastest growing segment, at 3.8%.)

“The outlook for air travel is positive,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our [LTDP] report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long-term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonisation, and an effective clean energy transition.”

Air passenger demand is measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs). There have been nine-trillion RPKs in 2024. The LTDP has three growth scenarios: higher, mid-range, and lower. The higher scenario sees a CAGR in RPKs of 3.3%, resulting in 21.9-trillion RPKs in 2050. The more probable mid-range scenario has a CAGR of 3.1%, leading to 20.8-trillion RPKs in 2050. The lower growth scenario predicts a CAGR of 2.9%, and 19.5-trillion RPKs in 2050.

These different scenarios were created using alternative models of long-term economic growth, population, price trends for aviation fuels, the global transition to cleaner energy, and the development of capacity on the supply side of the air transport industry.

As already indicated, growth will be uneven across regions and market segments. In terms of regions, the Asia Pacific will have the fastest growth, at 3.8%, with Africa second, at 3.6%. The slower-growing regions will be North America (2.8%) and Europe (2.5%). In terms of segments, the third-equal fastest growing would be the Asia Pacific-Middle East and intra-Asia Pacific, at 3.9% each.

IATA did note that the long-term growth rate for air passenger traffic is slowly decreasing. From 1972 to 1998, the CAGR was 6.1%; from 1998 to 2024 it was 4.5%; and, as already indicated, from 2024 to 2050 it will most likely be 3.1%. This is the result of a maturing market, not declining demand.

“The LTDP confirms that the Covid-19 pandemic caused a permanent structural shift in global aviation demand,” observed IATA. “Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPKs has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic [GDP]-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high growth scenario.”