Global major aerospace group Airbus expects total air passenger traffic to grow at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next 20 years, driven by a global gross domestic product that would increase by 2.6%/year. Urban populations would increase by 1.3-billion people, while the global middle class would grow by 34%, to 1.4-billion, over the next two decades. These forecasts were contained in the “Airbus 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast”.

This would lead to a demand for 42 060 new airliners between now and 2045. This figure would be divided into 19 820 to replace existing airliners and 22 240 to cover the growth in demand. Of the total, 81% would be single-aisle aircraft and 19% would be widebodies. The demand for latest generation airliners was driven by carriers’ desire to operate more fuel-efficient aircraft that produced fewer carbon emissions. Currently, latest generation aircraft accounted for some 39% of the global airliner fleet. By 2045, Airbus expected this to rise to almost 100%.

The manufacturer also highlighted that, globally, urbanisation was moving to smaller cities. And the number of these cities would grow at a pace nearly three times that of the larger cities. This would result in airlines being able to create new city pairings in their networks, between smaller and medium cities. These developments were being made possible by the latest generation of more fuel-efficient aircraft, noted the airframer.

“Routes such as Riga-Tenerife or Melbourne-Alice Springs can be already efficiently served by aircraft like the A220,” pointed out Airbus, using its own products as examples. “Enhanced aircraft range is also opening new city pairs, allowing direct connections. Such routes include Lisbon-Recife [across the South Atlantic] with the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo and Taipei with an A350.”

Air passenger demand was evolving in line with global economic developments – it was shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, there was and would continue to be robust growth in demand in countries such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Airbus was confident that its product strategy was well suited to these trends. It had a record order book of about 9 000 aircraft. All its types, from the smallest (A220) to the largest (A350), were running at their full production rates – for the A320 family, this was 75 a month. And, regarding the A320 family, more than 70% of its order backlog was for its largest A321neo and A321XLR models, which the airframer regarded as being ideal for the new city pairs now emerging. It also noted the dedicated freighter version of the A350, the A350F, was proving very popular in its market segment.