The global race towards decarbonisation is not only an environmental imperative but also an industrial revolution at the core of which lies a simple fact: the world cannot transition to a low-carbon future without Africa.

The continent is generously endowed with minerals needed to manufacture batteries and to power electric vehicles and renewable-energy systems, boasting about a third of the global reserve base. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alone accounts for 70% of the world’s cobalt, a key input in battery manufacturing, with Zambia and Morocco also holding sizable quantities. 

The DRC, alongside Zambia and South Africa, is also rich in copper, which underpins electrification. Zimbabwe holds the continent’s largest reserves of lithium – critical for battery production – followed by Ghana and Namibia. Meanwhile, neighbours South Africa and Zimbabwe have vast reserves of platinum group metals, with applications in catalytic converters for vehicle exhaust systems, and, along with Madagascar, are also rich in nickel, an essential material for battery cathodes and stainless steel.

Other critical mineral endowments are distributed as follows: South Africa and Madagascar have the lion’s share of rare-earth elements (REEs), vital to electronics and renewable-energy technologies; manganese, important in steel and battery cathode manufacturing, is concentrated in Gabon, Ghana and South Africa; and graphite, indispensable for battery anodes, is mined primarily in Mozambique and Tanzania.

Demand for these minerals is surging, with the International Energy Agency forecasting lithium demand to increase fivefold by 2040, while graphite and nickel demand is expected to double and cobalt and REE demand to increase by 50% to 60% within the same timeline. This is not a cyclical boom, but a structural shift driven by electrification, climate policy and technological change. In short, Africa sits atop a major opportunity.

If managed strategically, this mineral endowment could catalyse industrialisation, job creation and fiscal transformation. According to Africa’s Resources Future: Harnessing Natural Resources for Economic Transformation during the Low-Carbon Transition, a book published by the World Bank Group in 2023, resource extraction already accounts for 30% of government revenues in sub-Saharan Africa. With more effective policies, this could increase by up to $20-billion a year.

But the real prize lies beyond extraction. A key lesson from past mineral commodity cycles is that exporting raw materials is not development. Building value chains – processing, refining and manufacturing – is. Dr Theophilus Acheampong, head of research and markets at the London-based Critical Minerals Africa Group, underscored this point when I interviewed him last year: “The important thing becomes: How do we ensure that when you and I are having this conversation 20 years from now, we are not getting only 26% of minerals-related foreign direct investment going into manufacturing, which is the case currently, with the rest going into extraction, but maybe we have doubled that to almost 50%.”

Countries that succeed will be those that leverage their critical minerals endowments during this period of heightened demand rather than treating them merely as windfall rents. 

History offers another sobering warning: Africa’s mineral wealth has often coexisted with poverty and inequality, a paradox widely described as the resource curse. While there is nothing inevitable about this outcome, the risks of recurrence are real and, sadly, already evident in today’s critical minerals boom.

A 2023 report from Global Witness identified multiple alleged incidents of corruption, unsafe working conditions, forced evictions, child labour and harmful environmental practices linked to lithium mining in Zimbabwe, Namibia and the DRC. This prompted the nonprofit organisation’s senior investigator to remark: “History is on course to repeat itself.” 

Also worrying is the resurgence of resource nationalism – the instinct by governments to exert greater control through export bans, higher royalties and abrupt regulatory shifts.

While, in principle, greater national control is justified, poorly designed policies can backfire. In recent years, we have seen Mali introduce additional taxes for foreign investors under revised taxation laws and Zambia amend regulations to boost local ownership in mining projects. Ghana was reported last month to be mulling a sliding-scale gold-royalty regime as part of a push to capture more value from surging commodity prices. 

For its part, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium concentrate and raw minerals to promote domestic beneficiation.

These moves may be well intentioned, but they should be carefully sequenced and require infrastructure and investor confidence – points that cannot be overemphasised. 

As a Reuters journalist noted in a piece published in November – highlighting that resource disputes between investors and host governments have reached a ten-year high – the trend is unmistakable: such frictions rise in lockstep with the value of critical minerals.

It bears emphasising that the danger is not resource nationalism per se, but its senseless form, characterised by abrupt, opaque and poorly coordinated interventions that deter investment, stall projects and ultimately reduce the very revenues that governments seek to maximise. 

The scramble by major powers to secure access to Africa’s critical minerals, alongside the race by corporations to diversify their sources of these commodities, does give the continent some leverage. But we must not fool ourselves: if countries fail to provide stable, transparent and predictable investment environments, capital will flow elsewhere. If value addition is neglected, Africa will continue to export raw materials while importing manufactured products.

African governments must recognise that the continent’s critical minerals are not a destination but an opportunity that can anchor a new era of industrialisation and shared prosperity if handled wisely. 

• Dr Zhuwakinyu, who holds a PhD in communications (media studies) from the University of South Africa, is Creamer Media’s magazine managing editor - martinz@engineeringnews.co.za