The crude oil price returning to about $72/bl at the end of June had positive effects on business and particularly on general trade conditions for the month and improved trade expectations, reports business organisation the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci).

Sales prices remained stable in June, although the general price level, or inflation, partially started to reflect the full fuel price impact in May, Sacci says in its 'Trade Conditions Survey’ for June.

The lower sales volumes and new orders for May and June indicate the real effect of the rising fuel prices and their effect on spending patterns in the economy, it adds.

However, expected trade conditions moved firmly back into positive mode for the next six months according to the survey.

The gap between present and expected trade conditions remains wide, but the much lower crude oil and pump prices spurred positive expectations after the serious dip in the Trade Expectations Index in April, Sacci notes.

Further, trade conditions continued to be tight in June, with the Trade Conditions Index for June 2026 remaining subdued at thirty-six.

Meanwhile, inventories, backlog on orders and input prices – especially since the high crude oil prices in April – turned positive in June.

All the other components of trade declined marginally since May and stabilised in June, it says.

Consumer inflation increased to 4.5% in May while producer inflation measured 4.3%. Electricity tariffs rose by 12% year-on-year in May while the diesel price increased by 50% in June after the 64% increase in May.

Credit to households rose by 4.7% year-on-year and to non-households by nearly 12% year-on-year in May. Retail trade volumes remained suppressed and rose by only 1.3% year-on-year.

Notable depressed activities were also evident in manufacturing, which declined 2.8% year-on-year, construction, which declined 2.9% year-on-year, and merchandise export trade volumes that declined 6.4% year-on-year.

The current weaker trade conditions led respondents to employ fewer staff, although 31% still hired staff in June.

However, given expected improved trade conditions in the next six months, respondents intend to increase employment with the expected index increasing to 57 in June from 40 in April, at the peak of high crude oil prices.

The US-Israel and Iran war in the Middle East negatively affected trade conditions because it impacted fuel supply and rapidly rising crude oil prices. Crude oil prices peaked at about $119/bl at the end of April.

This had a marked impact, not only on fuel prices at the pump, but on escalated costs throughout the supply chain, with a pronounced effect on the inflation rate. This development had a direct effect on spending patterns of households and the costs of businesses.

Therefore, 75% of respondents to the April survey recorded a rise in input costs, Sacci notes.