Brazil-based major global aerospace group Embraer has released its market forecast for jet airliners with fewer than 150 seats, covering the next 20 years. Globally, the company expects 8 500 aircraft in this category, worth $650-billion, to be ordered between now and 2045. World passenger traffic is predicted to grow at 3.7% a year throughout this period.

“The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres,” highlighted Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO Arjan Meijer.

Zooming in on Africa, the continent will see the third fastest passenger growth rate, at 4.4% a year, over this period. Only China (at 5.2% a year) and the Middle East (4.6% a year) will grow faster; Latin America and the Caribbean will see 4.3% a year growth, followed by the rest of the Asia-Pacific (4.1% a year), Europe (2.7% a year) and North America (2% a year).

Africa’s GDP is expected to grow at 3.9% a year. Embraer expects that relaxed visa restrictions will encourage greater tourism, trade and travel demand. The continent is set for growth, with opportunities for increasing pan-African connectivity and stimulating economic development.

However, although growing (60% of Africans are under the age of 25, and the African middle class is expanding faster than the same demographic in most other regions), the African population is still spread relatively thinly over a large area. In 2025, 85% of intra-regional air markets still had fewer than 200 passengers a day.

“African airlines face limited economies of scale and high fuel prices,” Embraer also notes. “Their operating costs are 30% to 40% higher than the global average which squeezes profitability and hinders their ability to grow.”

These factors all combine to indicate that African carriers should operate airliners correctly sized for their markets and operating environment, and which are cost-efficient and allow airlines to establish new, lower-demand, connections as well as increase frequencies on existing, but underserved, routes. This requires a mix of larger and smaller capacity single-aisle airliners. Currently, 31% of intra-African flights operate with mid-size and large single-aisle airliners carrying fewer than 120 passengers. These flights will be better operated with smaller (fewer than 150 seat) single-aisle aircraft, states Embraer.  

Currently, 285 of these smaller jetliners are in service across Africa. The company expects 370 new ones will be ordered over the next 20 years, resulting in an in-service fleet of 525 in 2045.

As for the rest of the world, over the same period Embraer forecasts orders for 2 670 such airliners from North America, 1 870 from Europe and the former Soviet countries, 1 470 from China, 1 050 from the rest of the Asia-Pacific, 740 from Latin America and 330 from the Middle East. In terms of the percentages of the total order these numbers represent, these are 31% for North America, 22% for Europe and the former Soviet states, 17% for China, 13% for the rest of the Asia-Pacific, 9% for Latin America and 4% for the Middle East, with Africa also coming in at 4%.