US aerospace giant Boeing released, on Saturday, its latest Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), covering the period from now until and including 2041. In it, the group forecast a global market demand for 41 170 new airliners (of all categories) and freighter aircraft during this period.

These new aircraft will have a total value of $7.2-trillion. Their delivery will mean that, by 2041, the total global airliner and freighter fleet will be 80% larger than it was in 2019, just before the Covid-19 pandemic. Some 50% of jetliner deliveries during this time will be to replace airliners currently in service. This replacement of older with newer aircraft will improve fuel efficiency and cut emissions, thereby improving sustainability.

In parallel, Boeing Global Services has predicted that, also over the next 20 years, total global demand in its market sectors will come to $3.6-trillion. These sectors include maintenance, aircraft modifications (such as converting airliners into freighters), ‘digital solutions’, and training. It expects strong demand in all these sectors.

“Despite the unprecedented disruption over the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience adapting to the challenge,” highlighted Boeing commercial sales and marketing senior VP Ihssane Mounir. “The 2022 CMO draws upon our expertise forecasting market trends to demonstrate the strong demand for new airplanes and related services in the coming decades, providing a waypoint as the industry continues to navigate its recovery.”

Over the next 20 years, Boeing expects commercial aircraft deliveries to comprise 2 120 regional jets, 30 880 single-aisle airliners, 7 230 widebody airliners and 940 freighter aircraft. About 40% of this demand will be accounted for by the Asia-Pacific region. Some 20% will be from North America, and around another 20% from Europe. The rest of the world will account for approximately 15%.

South Asia is expected to see the most rapid growth in demand, at 6.2% a year, with India taking the lead. The South Asian commercial aircraft fleet is expected to quadruple over the period 2019 to 2041, from 700 aircraft to more than 2 600. The area that will show the second fastest growth will be South East Asia, where the airliner fleets will nearly triple in size over the next 20 years, to 4 500 aircraft.

This year’s Boeing CMO excludes Russia, because of sanctions imposed on that country. Over the forecast period, new airliner demand in that country was expected to amount to about 1 500 aircraft.