The global representative body for the airline industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has reported that total global air passenger traffic fell by -2.2%, year-on-year, in May. However, if the Middle East was stripped out of the calculation, the rest of the world saw year-on-year growth that month of 0.7%. And Africa experienced an increase of 6.6%, the strongest of any region.

Total international demand was down -1.6% year-on-year, but international demand minus the Middle East saw an increase of 3.1%. Total domestic demand fell -3.1%.

Total global passenger capacity in May declined by -2.3%, while the total load factor was 83.5%, which was a 0.1 percentage point (ppt) increase, year-on-year. International capacity was down -2.4%, and the load factor was 83.7%, up 0.7 ppt. Domestic capacity fell by -2.1%, and the load factor was 83%, which was a -0.8 ppt decrease.

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% [year-on-year] in May on the impact of war in the Middle East,” explained IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% [year-on-year] fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw [year-on-year] contractions in demand in North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.”

Regarding IATA’s six regions, as previously mentioned, Africa saw the strongest year-on-year growth in total passenger demand, at 6.6%. It was followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (6.1%), and Europe (2.7%). North America saw a contraction of -0.8%, followed by the Asia-Pacific (-2.4%) and the Middle East (-28.4%).

Concerning international passenger traffic, Latin America and the Caribbean saw the greatest growth, year-on-year, at 10.5%. Africa took second place, with an 8.9% increase. Third was Europe, at 3.8%, followed by the Asia-Pacific (1.3%) and North America (1%). The Middle East saw a fall of -28.8%.

The world’s six biggest domestic air travel markets were Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Japan and the US. In May, India saw the biggest year-on-year growth, of 10.1%, followed by Brazil and Japan, at 2.8% each. Australia saw a decline of -0.1%, followed by the US (-1.9%) and China (-6.2%).

“Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares,” reported Walsh. “While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalised’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2% margin have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs.”