Fifth-generation (5G) is expected to be the fastest-deployed mobile communication technology in history, surpassing one-billion subscriptions two years ahead of the fourth-generation (4G) long-term evolution timeline for the same milestone.

In addition, 5G is expected to reach 3.5-billion subscriptions, accounting for 40% of all mobile subscriptions and cover 60% of the population globally, by the end of 2026.

By the end of 2021, 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 580-million, after subscriptions with a 5G-capable device grew by 70-million during the first quarter of the year.

The twentieth edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that the faster speed of 5G uptake is “one more sign” of an industry that tirelessly continues to drive innovation and bring new technology to the market.

“Businesses and societies are also preparing for a post-pandemic world, with 5G-powered digitalisation playing a critical role,” says Ericsson executive VP and networks head Fredrik Jejdling.

The latest report reveals that more than 160 communications service providers have launched 5G services and over 300 5G smartphone models have been announced or launched commercially.

“We are in the next phase of 5G, with accelerating roll-outs and coverage expansion in pioneering markets such as China, the US and South Korea. “Now is the time for advanced use cases to start materialising and deliver on the promise of 5G,” he says.

However, it will take longer in some regions for 5G to be deployed and ready for mass adoption, with the pace of adoption varying widely by region.

The Ericsson Mobility Report says that Europe is off to a slower start and has continued to fall far behind China, the US, Korea, Japan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets in the pace of 5G deployments.

Currently, North-East Asia has the highest 5G subscription penetration, followed by North America, GCC countries and Western Europe.

While 5G continues its momentum over the forecast period, 4G remains the dominant mobile access technology by subscription.

During the first quarter of 2021, 4G subscriptions increased by about 100-million to exceed 4.6-billion and account for 58% of all mobile subscriptions.

“It is projected to peak during the year at 4.8-billion subscriptions before declining to around 3.9-billion subscriptions by the end of 2026 as more subscribers migrate to 5G,” Ericsson notes.

The report shows there are currently eight-billion mobile subscriptions, which will increase to 8.8-billion by the end of 2026, while the number of unique mobile subscribers is projected to grow from 5.9-billion in the first quarter of 2021 to 6.5-billion by the end of the forecast period.

Smartphone penetration continues to rise, and subscriptions associated with smartphones account for about 76% of all mobile phone subscriptions.

At the end of 2020, there were six-billion smartphone subscriptions, a number that is expected to grow to 7.7-billion in 2026, which will account for about 88% of all mobile subscriptions

In sub-Saharan Africa, where mobile penetration is lower than the global average, mobile subscriptions will also continue to grow.

In the first quarter of 2021, more than 20% of the global net additions were recorded in Africa, with Nigeria having the third-highest numbers globally of net adds.

Moreover, 4G accounted for about 15% of subscriptions at the end of 2020.

By 2026, mobile broadband subscriptions will increase to account for 76% of mobile subscriptions.

“While 5G and 4G subscriptions will continue to grow over the next six years, HSPA will remain the dominant technology, with a share of over 40% in 2026.

“Over the forecast period, discernible volumes of 5G subscriptions are expected from 2022, reaching 7% in 2026,” the report notes.

Meanwhile, data traffic continues to grow year-on-year, with global mobile data traffic, excluding traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA), exceeding 49 EB a month at the end of 2020. This is projected to reach 237 EB a month in 2026.

Including FWA traffic, total mobile network traffic was 58 EB a month at the end of last year.

Smartphones, which currently carry 95% of the traffic, are also consuming more data than ever, with the global average use for a smartphone now exceeding 10 GB a month, forecast to reach 35 GB a month by the end of 2026.

By 2026, 5G networks will carry more than half of the world’s smartphone traffic.