With the unprecedented continuous and rapid developments in fifth-generation (5G) technology and the Internet of Things (IoT), 2018 will not be “just another year” for an industry that has become accustomed to high smartphone subscription and mobile traffic growth.

Over the next five years, there are expected to be 3.5-billion IoT cellular connections and one-billion 5G connections, with 20% of global mobile data traffic running on 5G networks in 2023, the latest Ericsson Mobility Report shows.

“It will be a pivotal year for our industry,” says Ericsson executive VP and head of business area networks Fredrik Jejdling, pointing out that while many major 5G deploy–ments are expected from 2020, this year will see 5G networks commercialised alongside the large-scale deployment of cellular IoT.

He highlights that 5G technology will likely go into the “history books” as the start of an even bigger societal change than that of its mobile access technology predecessors, owing to new capabilities and use cases, which are set to impact on consumer services and industrial digital transformations.

“These technologies promise new capabilities that will impact on people’s lives and transform industries. This change will only come about through the combined efforts of industry players and regulators aligning on spectrum, standards and technology,” he says.

North America is expected to lead the 5G uptake, with all major US operators planning to roll out 5G technology between late 2018 and mid-2019, followed by other early adopters, including South Korea, Japan and China.

This emerges as the report estimates that, during the five-year forecast period, mobile data traffic will surge eightfold to reach close to 107 EB a month – equal to every mobile subscriber worldwide streaming full high-definition video for ten hours.

By 2023, more than 20% of mobile data traffic worldwide is expected to be carried by 5G networks – 1.5 times more than the total second-generation, third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) traffic currently.

Further, Ericsson points to a nearly doubling of the initial November 2017 forecast of cellular IoT connection deployments to an estimated 3.5-billion in 2023, driven by ongoing large-scale deployments in China. North-East Asia is anticipated to account for 2.2-billion.

“New massive IoT cellular technologies such as narrow-band- (NB-) IoT and Cat-M1 are fuelling this growth, giving service providers opportunities to improve efficiencies and enhance customer value,” Jejdling explains.

Mobile operators have launched more than 60 cellular IoT networks worldwide using these technologies over the underlying long-term evolution (LTE) network to support a diverse range of use cases.

“In the meantime, upgrading current 4G networks with the latest technology to cater for increasing traffic volumes and enhanced customer experience will be on most service providers’ agendas,” he adds.

Some 98-million new mobile subscriptions were added during the first quarter of this year, bringing the total number of subscriptions to about 7.9-billion.

The number of mobile broadband subscriptions increased 20% year-on-year to 5.5-billion in the first quarter of the year, while LTE subscriptions increased 210-million to 2.9-billion.

The subscriptions of LTE, which had become the dominant mobile access technology by the end of 2017, continues to grow strongly and is forecast to reach 5.5-billion by the end of 2023, when it will account for more than 60% of all mobile subscriptions, he points out.

The LTE population coverage is forecast to grow to more than 85% in 2023.

LTE has been the fastest-deployed mobile communication technology in terms of build-out and subscription uptake to date, taking only five years to serve 2.5-billion people, compared with the eight years it took for wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA)/ high-speed packet access (HSPA).

The net addition during the first quarter of the year for WCDMA/HSPA was about ten - million subscriptions.

Over the same period, Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM)/enhanced data rate for GSM evolution, or EDGE, only subscriptions declined by 90-million.

While the number of WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions is expected to decline slightly during 2018, the technology will still account for about one-fifth of all subscriptions in 2023.

“We forecast that there will be 8.9-billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2023. Mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 8.3-billion, accounting for close to 95% of all mobile subscriptions. “The number of unique mobile subscribers is estimated to reach 6.1-billion by the end of the forecast period,” the report outlines.

Smartphone penetration also continues to rise, driven by the increasing affordability of devices, with 4.3-billion smartphone subscriptions recorded by the end of 2017, 95% of which were for 3G and 4G technology.

The number of smartphone subscriptions is forecast to reach 7.2-billion in 2023, and most will be for mobile broadband.