That I am an Afro-optimist is no secret. This simply means that, unlike doomsayers like Donald Trump, who once likened our countries to latrines, I strongly believe in the Africa Rising narrative. Of course, I am not blind to the ills afflicting us as Africans: primitive corruption (as one luminary describes venality where dizzying amounts of dosh are siphoned off), stolen elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and elsewhere, tyranny in countries like Zimbabwe and Sudan, et cetera.
But, as they say, every cloud has a silver lining. Reading the introduction to ‘Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent in 2019’, a new report published by the Brookings Institution, a US think-thank, one gets the sense that there are reasons to be optimistic about Africa’s prospects this year. Brahima Coulibaly, a senior fellow and director of the think-tank’s Africa Growth Initiative, avers: “The 2014 terms-of-trade shock from the commodities slump that hit many countries in the region hard has largely dissipated. Across the continent, economic growth is projected to expand at the fastest pace in five years [and] nearly half the world’s fastest-growing economies this year will be African.
“Business environments are improving, thanks to widespread reform efforts, and Africa’s leadership and institutions are more assertive in advancing the continent’s agenda.”
Coulibaly, a Côte d’Ivoire-born economist who had stints in academia and with the US Federal Reserve system before assuming his new position, also highlights African efforts to support the movement of people and goods across national borders, thus bucking global protectionist trends championed by baddies like Trump. These include the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which was signed in March 2018, paving the way for the mooted African Continental Trade Area. Hitherto, 52 of the African Union’s 55 member States have signed the AfCFTA, with Nigeria, one of the continent’s top three economies, a notable exception. The AfCFTA aims to create a market of 1.2-billion people and a gross domestic product of $2.5-trillion.
Coulibaly notes that the “unprecedented dynamism” in creating trade and investment opportunities in Africa is drawing interest from an increasingly diverse group of external partners.
A lot still needs to be done to take Africa forward, however, with one area that should be a key focus of attention in 2019 being governance, upon which economic development depends. In this regard, the authors of the ‘Foresight Africa’ report express the hope that elections this year in Nigeria and South Africa will give added impetus to reforms aimed at reviving the economies of these nations, the largest two on the continent.
Also flagged is balancing the mobilisation of financial resources for economic development with controlling indebtedness – very sound advice, I would say, given the Chinese’s newfound diplomacy of indebtedness, against which I have railed on this page.
While Africa’s working-age population is growing, with the number of young people entering the workforce forecast to exceed that of the rest of the world by 2050, the “Foresight Africa’ compilers warn that the challenges posed by the increasing adoption of labour-saving technologies and a stagnant industrial sector would have to be overcome before the dividends of this youth bulge can be reaped.
Also needing priority attention, according to the Brookings Institution, is extreme poverty, which afflicts many parts of Africa. The continent is forecast to be home to 70% of the world’s poor by 2030, with most of them living in Nigeria and the DRC. To tackle this scourge, which will surely be exacerbated by climate change, the think-tank prescribes solutions anchored on private-sector development.
The ‘Foresight Africa’ report avers that there are opportunities galore for the private sector in African markets, which, if taken advantage of, could help many climb the income ladder. It points to the expanding middle class, noting that businesses are jumping at the chance to meet its consumption needs. It adds that the continent’s young, fast-growing and increasingly urbanised population, coupled with rapid technology adoption, make the continent fertile for innovation. Further, economic dynamism in many parts of the continent is generating business opportunities in infrastructure, housing, healthcare and financial services, besides others.