The intensifying semiconductor shortage will slow the post-Covid-19 global recovery of light-vehicle sales over the next two years, says S&P Global Ratings in a newly published report.
“In our revised scenario, we now expect light-vehicle sales will increase more moderately by about 2% to 4% in 2021, year-on-year, compared with the projections of 8% to 10% we made earlier this year,” says S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Vittoria Ferraris.
This translates into sales just below 80-million units in 2021, compared with 83-million to 85-million units in S&P Global Ratings’ previous projection.
“We expect the chip shortage will extend into 2022, which has led us also to revise downward our projection of light-vehicle sales for 2022 to 84-million units, from 87-million in our projection earlier this year,” says Ferraris.
“We nevertheless assume supply constraints will ease gradually, leading to a recovery of light-vehicle sales to 90-million units by the end of 2023.
“In our view, the crisis highlights the critical importance of supply chain management for original-equipment manufacturers (vehicle manufacturers) and has exposed areas of vulnerability.”
Despite a slower sales recovery overall, Ferraris adds that S&P Global Ratings projects that electrification will accelerate to make up between 7% and 10% of the global light-vehicle fleet in 2021, and between 15% to 20% in 2025.