In the dying decades of apartheid, the anti-democracy scaremongers continually pointed to the “rest of Africa” as a cautionary tale of what South Africa could become in the event of majority rule. Fast-forward a few decades and the neighbourhood, which still has many serious problems, appears far more benign even to the pessimist and downright exciting to the optimist.
The World Bank’s latest ‘South Africa Economic Update’ highlights just how important the region has become to South Africa’s current economic fortunes and its future prospects.
The analysis shows that, once mineral ores, metals and fuels are stripped out, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 29% of South Africa’s exports, up from 19% a decade ago. Including Southern African Customs Union exports, Africa currently accounts for around half of South Africa’s nonmineral exports, dwarfing the European Union, whose imports have fallen from more than 41% to 28% over the period.
The bank, therefore, argues that “deeper regional integration” will be critical to reversing South Africa’s current trend of export underperformance and help it meet the National Development Plan’s target of yearly export growth of 6% for the period to 2030. However, competition constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks will also have to be cleared for the target to be achieved.
The South African government is also alive to the potential presented by the rest of Africa, where many economies have been able to sustain relatively high levels of growth despite external economic headwinds.
Only last week, President Jacob Zuma restated the country’s strategy of so-called “development integration” and its three pillars of market integration, crossborder infrastructure development and industrialisation.
In an address made only days after he returned from the African Union’s twenty-second summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Zuma also highlighted the efforts being made to negotiate the much- vaunted Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (T-FTA). Should it proceed, the T-FTA will encompass 26 eastern and southern African countries with a joint population of nearly 600-million and a combined gross domestic product of $1-trillion. Moreover, it could be the precursor to a future Africawide agreement.
However, real progress on this laudable goal remains far too slow. The initial launch date of 2013 has come and gone and no firm date has been set for its eventual implementation.
There is no question that the T-FTA is a key priority for South Africa and there is also no question that genuine efforts are being made to see the project through. But credibility is being eroded by the lack of visible progress, or any sign that the initiative is anything more that an aspiration.
It’s surely past time for South Africa, which has so much to gain from regional integration, to take more decisive action.
This may require a downgrading of the vision in favour of bite-sized, yet implement- able, programmes of action. For instance, it might be worth considering homing in on a few key pilot projects, particularly projects that could reduce the time and hassle associated with moving goods across borders.
As with so many things, big-picture plans and visions can help inspire and guide action. But seeing, as the idiom goes, is believing – Africans need to begin seeing some tangible regional-integration results if they are really going to stand behind the dream.