The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) has commended Cabinet’s decision to approve a reduced target range for greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa, noting that it is “a marked improvement” from the previous target range proposed by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE).
These targets make up South Africa’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Climate Agreement and form an integral part of South Africa’s climate change mitigation response.
An ambitious NDC is an essential part of South Africa’s climate change mitigation efforts and will also play an increasingly important role in determining the country’s access to climate finance, the CER says in a statement. It will also assist South Africa in mitigating some of the risk posed to the country’s exports when the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism is implemented.
However, while the CER says that the latest revised NDC target range is an important step forward for climate action in South Africa, it stresses that only the lower limit of the range (of 350-million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent) is consistent with South Africa’s fair share of GHG emissions for a 1.5 °C global pathway, as calculated by international research group the Climate Equity Reference Project (CERP).
The CER states the higher limit is “well above” a 1.5 °C trajectory.
“There is a material risk that our big emitters see the upper limit of the new NDC range as an opportunity to delay the reduction of GHG emissions,” comments CER pollution and climate change programme head Nicole Loser.
She explains that Cabinet’s decision would only matter for the country’s climate response if it could keep emissions to the lower limit.
“This is of particular importance for South Africa, a country that is warming at twice the global average.”
At present trajectories of global climate action, including South Africa’s currently in place NDC, South Africa is on a pathway to a 3 °C to 4 °C warmer climate by 2100, which could be catastrophic for the country.
The NDC range proposed by the Presidential Climate Commission, and approved by Cabinet, takes the country closer to a pathway for a safe climate, but not close enough, the CER stresses.
However, with the newly approved target range, the CER urges South Africa to start taking urgent measures to meet its commitments.
Among the measures is a revision of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to remove new fossil fuel (coal and gas) electricity capacity and urgently implement the renewable energy build plans in the IRP.
“A strong local NDC, accompanied by sound policy implementation, has the potential to unlock many opportunities in the green economy, with the energy, transport, agricultural and other sectors standing to become net employment creators and enhanced revenue generators - if the moment is seized,” notes CER climate advocacy lawyer Brandon Abdinor.
All parties to the Paris Climate Agreement must update their NDCs every five years, with many countries revising their 2015 targets this year, to align with recent scientific findings of the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and ahead of the COP 26 Climate Summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.