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Markets believe there is only a one-third chance of growth-boosting reform after the elections and that there is a 75% probability of President Cyril Ramaphosa remaining in his seat until 2022, at least, according to financial services research house Intellidex.
Overall, the market anticipated the national vote result at 57.4% for the African National Congress (ANC), 20.7% for the Democratic Alliance and 11.5% for the Economic Freedom Fighters. Intellidex predicts a majority vote at 55% for the ANC.
Intellidex Market Research conducted an online poll last week of market participants active in the South African asset markets.
About 46 respondents completed the full survey.
These were segmented into offshore buyside (with a good balance of hedge funds and real money); onshore buyside (which was skewed more towards real money); and sellside (in which the company included investment banks and institutional stockbrokers, private banks and private wealth manager advisory, both onshore and offshore).
Intellidex also opened the poll to a wider segment of its contact list this time round, which was segmented as non-financial. This group included policy makers, lawyers, diplomats, academics and journalists.
In the survey, there was a moderately high degree of confidence that a “mandate threshold” exists, though the market is split on what this is and if it will be reached.
“The sellside (largely institutional brokers) thinks it will be reached but the buyside (asset managers) does not.
“Equally, market participants [expect] asset prices could have a sustained rally at some level of ANC vote but don’t see this level being reached,” said Intellidex.
The company found that participants were roughly split down the middle on whether the ANC will keep [a governance role] in Gauteng.
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni was strongly favoured to remain in office until at least the end of the year. Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan was also expected to remain Minister until the end of the year.