The International Air Transport Association (Iata), the representative body for the global airline industry, warned on April 23 that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the African airline industry was going to be significantly more severe than previously expected. The association called on African governments to support their airline sectors.
African airlines are now forecast to lose as much as $6-billion in passenger revenues, in comparison to 2019. This figure is $2-billion higher than the losses estimated at the start of April. Air passenger traffic for the whole of this year is likely to be 51% down on last year. The previous estimate was a fall of 32%.
The number of people in African aviation and related jobs who could lose their employment is now predicted to reach 3.1-million. This is half of all the continent’s aviation and related jobs, which currently total 6.2-million. The previous forecast was for 2-million job losses. Africa’s aviation-supported gross domestic product could drop by $28-billion (from $56-billion last year). The previous prediction had been for a fall $17.8-billion.
South Africa alone is forecast to see a collapse in passenger numbers of 14.5-million, with revenue falling $3.02-billion. Job cuts could reach 252 100 and the economy could lose $5.1-billion.
All these predictions are based on two main assumptions. Firstly, stringent travel restrictions for three months. Secondly, that these restrictions would then be raised gradually, starting with domestic flights, then regional and finally intercontinental services.
“Airlines in Africa are struggling for survival,” alerted Iata regional VP: Africa and the Middle East Muhammad Al Bakri. “Air Mauritius has entered voluntary administration, South African Airways and SA Express are in business rescue, other distressed carriers have placed staff on unpaid leave or signalled their intention to cut jobs. More airlines will follow if urgent financial relief is not provided.”
The association praised several African countries for steps they have taken to help the sector. Senegal has proclaimed $128-million in relief for its air transport and tourism sector, while Seychelles has waived all aircraft landing and parking fees from April to December this year. Cote d’Ivoire has waived its tourism tax on transit passengers. And South African airlines will benefit from the country’s pan-industrial deferring of carbon, income and payroll taxes.
But Iata called for further help for African airlines. It requested direct financial support, tax relief, and loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market. It also called on development banks and other financial sources to support African air transport. The sector was, it warned, on the verge of collapse.