The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global representative body for the airline industry, reported on Monday that air cargo demand in September softened, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, but remained at near-pre-Covid-19 levels. September air cargo demand was down 10.6%, y-o-y. International air cargo demand, over the same period, was also down 10.6%. However, total global air cargo demand in September was only 3.6% below that for September 2019.
“While air cargo’s activity continues to track near to 2019 levels, volumes remain below 2021’s exceptional performance as the industry faces some headwinds,” pointed out IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “At the consumer level, with travel restrictions lifting post-pandemic, people are likely to spend more on vacation travel and less on e-commerce. And at the macro-level, increasing recession warnings are likely to have a negative impact on the global flows of goods and services, balanced slightly by a stabilisation of oil prices. Against this backdrop, air cargo is bearing up well. And a strategic slow-down in capacity growth from 6.3% in August to 2.4% in September demonstrates the flexibility the industry has in adjusting to economic developments.”
Another factor that had to be considered was inflation. While the Group of Seven largest developed economies saw their average consumer price index stabilise at 7.7% in September, this was the highest it had been in decades. In August, producer (or input) price inflation had decelerated to 13.7%.
Of IATA’s six regions, by far the best performing was Latin America, which recorded a y-o-y increase in cargo demand of 10.8%. The second-best performing region was Africa, which reported a y-o-y rise of 0.1%, although this was 1% down in month-on-month (m-o-m) terms.
The worst performing region was the Middle East, with a y-o-y drop of 15.8% and a m-o-m fall of 11.3%. The performance of Middle Eastern operators was hit by stagnant cargo flows to and from Europe.
Europe was the second-worst performing region, seeing a y-o-y decrease of 15.6%, which was similar to its performance in August (when it was down 15.1% in y-o-y terms). “This is attributable to the war in Ukraine,” noted IATA. “Labour shortages and high inflation levels, most notably in Turkey, also affected volumes.”
Of IATA’s remaining two regions, the Asia-Pacific reported a y-o-y fall of 10.7%. In m-o-m terms, the drop was 8.3%. North America recorded a y-o-y decline of 6% and a m-o-m decrease of 3.4%.