Aviation makes a significant contribution to South African economy, International Air Transport Association (Iata) Advocacy and Strategic Relations: Africa manager Sandile Chipunza told the recent 2019 Commercial Aviation Association of Southern Africa symposium.
Air transport contributed $9.4- billion in gross value added (GVA) to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), while air transport and foreign tourists travelling by air contributed 3.2% of the national GDP. A total of 472 000 local jobs were supported by the air transport industry.
More precisely, air transport directly accounted for $2.1-billion in GVA and 70 000 jobs. The air transport supply chain added another $2.1-billion in GVA and 113 000 jobs. Air transport employee spending contributed $0.9-billion in GVA and 48 000 jobs. And air transport-based tourism contrubuted $4.3-billion in GVA and 241 000 jobs. In terms of air routes, South Africa is well connected internationally.
The country has been enjoying solid growth in air passenger traffic since the start of 2013, although international traffic displayed significantly stronger (seasonally adjusted) growth than domestic traffic during the period 2014 to 2016, after which the two growth paths became roughly parallel again, up to 2019. This year, so far, has seen seasonally adjusted international air passenger traffic increase more sharply, while domestic air traffic has declined slightly.
South Africa is currently (in terms of destination-weighted seats) the most air-connected country in Africa. Using this metric, the country’s ‘connectivity score’ increased by 29% from 2013 to 2018. In second place is Egypt, whose connectivity score increased by 27% over the same period. In third place is Morocco, followed by Algeria, Ethiopia, Tunisia, Kenya, Nigeria, Mauritius and Sudan. It should perhaps be noted that Ethiopia’s connectivity score rocketed by 121%, Morocco’s by 67%, Algeria’s by 65%, Mauritius’ by 50%, Sudan’s by 40%, Kenya’s by 35%, and Tunisia’s by 34%. In sharp contrast, Nigeria’s connectivity score rose by only 5%.
Africa is, in fact, forecast to be Iata’s second-fastest-growing region over the 20-year period 2018 to 2038. It is expected to enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% a year over this period, resulting in 208-million additional air passenger journeys. The fastest-growing region is expected to be Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of 5.2% a year, leading to 2.81-billion additional air passenger journeys. The slowest-growing region is predicted to be Europe, at 2.1% CAGR annually and 568-million additional air passenger journeys.
In terms of air traffic, measured in seasonally adjusted revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs – an RPK is flown when one revenue-paying passenger is flown one kilometre), African air passenger traffic has risen quite steadily since 2015. At the start of that year, African RPKs amounted to roughly 11.5-billion per month. By about the middle of this year. RPKs stood at about 15.5-billion a month. Regarding air freight (measured in freight metric-ton kilometres or FTKs), this has also trended upwards, but less consistently than air passenger traffic. In 2014, African air cargo amounted to some 260-million FTKs a month; by about the middle of this year, this had risen to about 390- million FTKs a month.
Iata forecasts African air passenger demand to increase strongly. In 2008, there were 100.8-million passengers flying to and from and within Africa. Last year, this figure had risen to 145.2-million. If current regional and global economic trends continue, this will reach 356-million in 2038.