Commercial aviation activity in South Africa seems to be recovering

21st February 2020 By: Rebecca Campbell - Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

The latest edition of the Commercial Aviation Association of Southern Africa's Commercial Aviation Activity Index (CAAI) shows an upward trend, reported the index's author, independent economist Dr Roelof Botha. But he warned that caution was still necessary. "Aviation activity is quite volatile," he noted.

He pointed out that the CAAI had recorded a sharp fall from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017. This had been the height of the "State Capture" era. (State Capture being the huge corruption scandal that engulfed South Africa during the administration of the previous President, Jacob Zuma.)

But, following the most recent edition of the Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) exhibition (held in September 2018), the CAAI registered a sharp increase. AAD 2018 was the first edition of the show held after Cyril Ramaphosa became South Africa's President. 

The data showed that air traffic movements (ATMs) through airports belonging to the State-owned Airports Company South Africa (ACSA, which owns most of the country's international airports) fell from the third quarter of 2016. This was probably the result of very strict visa requirements put in place by then Home Affairs Minister Malusi Gigaba. ATMs through non-ACSA airports remained flat from the second quarter of 2017 to third quarter of 2019, and then fell.

Regarding Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport, ATMs rose significantly from the first quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of that year, and then fell again, but only by a little, during the fourth quarter. Concerning Cape Town International Airport, ATMs declined sharply from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter, and then again from the second quarter to the third, only to rebound strongly from the third quarter to the fourth. (Both these airports belong to ACSA.)

Overall, the CAAI was flat from the second quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018. From the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, the index displayed a sharp upward trend. During the second and third quarters of last year, it was flat. The last quarter of the year saw another fall.