The efficacy of South Africa’s climate change mitigation efforts largely depends on how resilience is embedded in infrastructure development and adaptation strategies overall, which the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) recognises in its Just Transition Framework (JTF).
PCC commissioner and environmental organisation WWF South Africa climate portfolio senior manager Louise Naudé deems the Climate Resilience Development Pathways (CRDPs) approach to climate change action as apt for South Africa and its socioeconomic context.
CRDPs involve decision-makers systemically taking into account the projected impacts of climate change on strategic infrastructure development, planning and management, alongside other traditional criteria, while managing the trade-offs between the multiple sectors involved in a particular project and selecting the most climate-resilient development method.
Naudé says a climate-resilient economy can be built by having every sphere of society opt for the “climate smart” choice when making decisions.
According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CRDPs are not one decision or action, but rather represent a continuum of coherent, consistent decisions, actions and interventions that evolve within individual communities, nations and the world over a longer term.
A CRDP will, for example, aspire to achieve ecological outcomes in terms of planetary health and achievement of the Paris Agreement goals, as well as human wellbeing, solidarity and social justice. These outcomes are enabled by achieving progress in core system transitions that catalyse broader societal transformations, the IPCC says.
Naudé cites the issue of whether government should build more roads to cater for more cars or more public transport networks, which, for the sake of justice, serve more people and lower carbon emissions.
Another “climate smart” decision may be to restore ecological infrastructure to mitigate extreme weather in future, in wetlands, for example, since this type of ecosystem is already accustomed to handling large masses of water or can provide water in dry periods.
If the environment and society are not looked after in equal measure, both will be destroyed. Part of building resilience is creating job and livelihood opportunities so that people can exercise their own agency and provide their own climate resilience, she adds.
PCC commissioner Makoma Lekalakala said in September that South Africa’s just transition can be realised only if CRDPs are at its core, as they involve a deeply consultative process, particularly with the people who have the most to lose in an energy transition.
The PCC has, since its establishment in December 2020 as an advisory body to government, embarked on CRDP case studies in Saldanha Bay, in the Western Cape, and eThekwini, in KwaZulu-Natal, to understand ways of making the energy transition equitable while ensuring a climate-resilient future.
Policy Commentary
Webber Wentzel environmental law experts Garyn Rapson, Paula-Ann Novotny and Carma Rossouw tell Engineering News & Mining Weekly that the theoretical basis for many of the ideas central to the CRDP approach has existed since the 1960s; however, it has gained a renewed importance in the past few years.
They believe that the CRDP approach acknowledges the complexities, nuances and challenges underlying the just transition and recognises that South Africa’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels cannot be changed overnight.
The experts also emphasise the importance of engagement and collaboration between the different spheres of government, as well as the private sector and civil society.
Simultaneously, government is increasingly recognising the need to invest time and resources in climate change mitigation and adaptation, with private-sector buy-in also improving.
The lawyers affirm that the PCC is succeeding in ensuring dialogue among government, business leaders, the science community and climate activists, which, from a continental perspective, is further bolstered by the African Union’s recently published climate change and resilient development strategy and action plan for 2022 to 2023.
The strategy provides an outline for a harmonised and coordinated approach to respond to climate change impacts and encumbrances. It sets out common challenges, principles, priorities and action areas for enhanced climate cooperation, strengthened adaptation capacity and long-term, equitable and transformative low-emission CRDPs for the continent.
Rapson, Novotny and Rossouw say businesses and local government in South Africa will require significant financial support to adopt and implement CRDPs.
In this respect, the adoption of South Africa’s Green Finance Taxonomy will assist in promoting and facilitating green investments.
It aims to assist businesses in identifying parts of their operations that are “green” and those that can most effectively be transformed into “green”, which can encourage further investment.
The CRDP approach is also seen as versatile, being capable of taking on many different forms.
For example, in Denmark, the CRDP approach led to a new stormwater storage system, where the storage tank doubles as a recreational facility for skaters.
In Prague, hydraulic models for flood protection have been adopted, and these are connected with 11 city water level gauges through an interactive tool. This enables local government to estimate and forecast the extent of flooding and prepare accordingly.
In Rapson, Novotny and Rossouw’s view, it is crucial that, throughout the implementation of the JTF and the adoption of CRDPs, people be put first: communities must be empowered and supported through human resources and skills development, as well as social protection measures.
“Working towards a just transition will also require significant capital mobilisation from public, private and international sources. The JTF anticipates that South Africa will require at least $250-billion over the next three decades to transform its energy system.”
Regulation and institutional partnerships between the public and private sectors will also be crucial, they add.
Likewise, the National Treasury will have to incorporate climate considerations and the just transition imperative into national financing and budgeting, while all government spheres will have to collaborate effectively.
With South Africa’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels and mining, for not only energy but also employment opportunities and socioeconomic upliftment, the low-carbon transition will be a gradual, yet efficient, movement towards net zero that puts people at the centre of decision-making.
Rapson, Novotny and Rossouw mention that, although South Africa has often lagged behind in establishing the requisite legal frameworks for industry movements, it does “catch up quickly with the support of the private sector and the push of regulators”.
Notably, the financial regulatory sector is increasingly considering climate-related risks, with the South African Reserve Bank having recently established a climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa.
Responding to whether government is likely to implement CRDPs and the JTF as a starting point in the country, the lawyers believe that decent governance structures have been put in place and that there is enough incentive for South Africa to capitalise on investment from the developed world, which was evident at the COP26 conference, to ensure that at least some of the top government officials take notice of the CRDP approach to climate resilience and a just transition.
“Working towards a just transition is no easy task. It requires a nuanced, sensitive and integrated approach, and will inevitably lead to certain trade-offs. At this stage, however, the JTF merely serves as an organising frame. To give effect to the just transition, detailed implementation plans and strategies will be crucial,” Rapson, Novotny and Rossouw state.
More Considerations
A practical intervention as part of a CRDP can include investing in green hydrogen infrastructure to power the manufacturing of iron and steel for export, and building South African infrastructure, suggests University of Cape Town African Climate and Development Institute research fellow Anna Taylor.
She says the CRDP approach follows an integrated consideration of the various systems that constitute the country and the various outcomes that depend on the decisions made today.
Taylor believes that there are many opportunities to enforce land use restrictions and create ecosystem-based employment in biodiversity adaptation corridors, aquifer protection zones and high-flood-risk zones. Some of the opportunities include clearing solid waste and invasive plants along rivers and revegetating banks and dunes.
IPCC co-chairperson and South African climate scientist Debra Roberts believes that cross-sectoral or “nexus” approaches, as encompassed in CRDPs, such as water- energy-food or climate-ecosystems-human health, can deliver multiple benefits and avoid maladaptation to climate change.
Environmental organisation Greenpeace Africa climate and energy campaigner Thandile Chinyavanhu agrees, stating that there is still a lot of hesitance from businesses that “are clinging to fossil fuels” and want to maintain the status quo.
“Government and companies also need to support the mobilisation of resources necessary to transform business models.”
Municipalities are particularly under- resourced, especially for energy projects. He also believes there to be too much misalignment between government departments for CRDPs or the just transition to be effective at government level.
The departments of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, and Mineral Resources and Energy are often in clear contradiction with each other or with the Presidency, Chinyavanhu states.
“We need to see all departments championing renewable energy as a means of reducing emissions and creating jobs. In recognising the multidisciplinary impact of climate change, it does not serve anyone well to compartmentalise.”
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition will also need to drive decarbonisation and root for the green economy locally through its support for electric vehicles and infrastructure.
Chinyavanhu admits that South Africa is a “complex society”, with a lot of influences that may impact on the implementation of CRDPs or the just transition overall and that, to this end, the country needs effective governance at all levels of government, which requires the elimination of corruption and maladministration.