Research service, BloombergNEF (BNEF) has cut its electric vehicle (EV) sales forecast for 2019 by 6%, to 1.5-million units.
Global passenger EV sales fell in July for the first time in 30 months, with the last move into the red seen in January 2017.
However, the drop in passenger EV sales in China and stagnating sales for the remainder of the third quarter are likely only a temporary blip for the world’s largest EV market, according to a new report from BNEF.
The research service expects growth to recover in the fourth quarter, buoyed by new models and consumers rushing to showroom floors in order to lock in subsidies that could be cut in 2020.
Government measures could also help.
“EV sales could gain later this year, or next year, if central or local governments launch new policy measures,” notes BNEF.
EV sales in July dropped almost 7% compared with the same month a year ago, and 51% from June.
BNEF attributes July’s drop to a number of reasons, including a continued slowdown in new vehicle sales in China, discounts on internal combustion engine vehicles and a reduction in subsidies on EVs.
July’s drop came off a particularly strong month in June when passenger EV sales surged to 137 000 units, accounting for a record 7.9% share of new car sales.
The surge in June came after China said in March that it would make changes to its new energy vehicle programme, including a reduction in national subsidies and the removal of local incentives.
The changes took effect on June 26.
By 2040, says BNEF in its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 (EVO 2019) report, published in May, 57% of all passenger vehicle sales, and more than 30% of the global passenger vehicle fleet are expected to be electric.
BNEF is Bloomberg’s primary research service, and covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities.