A report compiled by the Bureau of Market Research’s (BMR’s) demographic research division estimates that the South African population had increased to about 60.5-million by mid-year.
This is 1.46% higher than the 59.62-million people estimated to reside in the country by Statistics South Africa in 2020.
The report, compiled by BMR senior researcher Dr Joshua Kembo in collaboration with BMR research director Professor Carel van Aardt, also shows that Gauteng remains the most populous province, with an estimated population of 15.9-million persons, while the Northern Cape remains the least populous province, with an estimated total population size of 1.3-million people.
Increasing population numbers imply that, in the future, there will be an increased demand for social and health services, electricity, water supply, as well as toilet and waste disposal facilities.
The BMR states that these factors need to be taken into consideration when planning in these sectors.
Besides cohort analyses by province and population group, the report also provides population estimates by ages and sexes, with females projected to constitute 51% of the population.
The report also finds a gradual ageing in the population.
However, the BMR notes that the population estimates do not take into account the impact of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which has most likely increased mortality rates, accompanied by a drop in fertility rates. Migration may also have been receding, the BMR suggests.
Meanwhile, the base of the projections of the report is the October 2011 Population Census figures adjusted to mid-2011 in conformity with international standards for population projections.
The BMR is a division of the University of South Africa.
Stats SA is set to release its population statistics next week.