Scientists from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the National Research Foundation (NRF), as well as policymakers and government officials, discussed South Africa’s research on, and responses to, climate change and its complex regional and global impacts on society, the economy, politics, animals and the environment.

SAWS research senior manager Lucky Ntsangwane says the SAWS is a science- driven organisation and highlights that the information it provides is important in warning society and informing its response to increasingly extreme weather events, such as storms, while also providing information about seasonal rainfall and variations to make agricultural operations more prepared and resilient.

SAWS weather research chief scientist Dr Mary-Jane Bopape highlights some of the climate-related disasters South Africa faced in the recent past and says that the SAWS data between 1976 and 2005, as well as shared international data, show steadily increasing average temperatures across Southern Africa.

However, the signals for average rainfall are less consistent, pointing instead to longer dry and wet periods, as well as increases in more extreme weather events, such as the flash flooding that killed 70 people in KwaZulu-Natal in April.

“If it is a ‘business as usual’ situation and greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to increase without efforts to reduce it, we estimate that there will be a large increase in average temperature of 5 ºC by 2060 across Southern Africa.”

Part of the work of the SAWS is to improve the transmission of warnings to people in the path of storms or extreme weather events. The SAWS has a network of more than 140 community radio stations, social media feeds, disaster management agencies and a SAWS application to reach as many people as possible, but it is exploring ways of improving this network. She highlights that better responses and communication are elements of adaptation to climate change.

University of Pretoria department of agricultural economics, extension and rural development senior lecturer Dr Mmatlou Kalaba adds that the capacity of infrastructure to accommodate disaster situations is also an important consideration. For example, the average duration of severe droughts in the Western Cape is currently between 18 months and three years and agricultural and potable water infrastructure cannot accommodate this.

Focusing on the impact of climate change on the economy and agriculture, he notes that more variable rainfall will impact on food production and lead to rising food prices. A loss of productivity will have an impact on labour and jobs. Further, extreme weather will affect and damage infrastructure and systems, which will reduce the money available for building and maintaining infrastructure.

“By 2100, the total impact of climate change, assuming a 4 ºC rise in temperatures globally, will reduce global growth by 30%. That is worse than the Great Depression, but permanent instead of cyclical.”

University of the Witwatersrand distinguished visiting professor and Public Health and Medical Anthropology professor Lenore Manderson outlines the complexity of climate-related problems by showing that the interrelation between human society, the burden and spread of disease and the economy changes in response to environmental stresses and changes – such as those anticipated from climate change.

She illustrates the problem by showing that the burden of metabolic, infectious and noninfectious diseases would increase in the event of average temperature increases. She adds that there are indications that animals and vector animals, such as mosquitoes, are also changing their behaviour and migrating to more suitable areas as the climate changes.

“Poor nutrition increases the burden of disease, especially among the vulnerable. Unemployment and length of unemployment are likely to increase stress, which will increase medical expenses, and deteriorating living conditions will lead to increases in the rate of co-morbidity.

“We have particular challenges in South Africa because of climate change and the impact on all these factors. Climate change impacts on biological systems and our bodies and, thereby, our social systems. These systems interact with each other, leading to different biological and health problems, such as the classic case of the interaction of the human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis organisms, which are influenced by the social environment.”

However, Manderson says that the South African academic community and government institutions are among the global leaders with regard to climate change research and commitments to carbon dioxide reduction will help to shake up uncommitted nations, such as Australia and the US.

There is a need for creative and innovative research to look at the impact of climate change, and this is what the NRF supports, adds Manderson.

NRF CEO Dr Molapo Qhobela says that climate change is a problem that no one country is able to deal with. It is a global issue and there is no way that any single science community, organisation or nation could deal with the issues alone.

Bopape says the SAWS shares data with the region, mainly covering the Southern African Development Community. It also shares data with and gathers data from international partner organisations.

“It is important that we talk about one health (of the planet) and recognise that humans, animals and the environment are entangled,” says Manderson.