A recent survey shows there are about 30GW of wind energy projects in various stages of development. While South Africa has the skills to support the rollout of this generation capacity, the lack of grid capacity is the biggest hurdle in deploying the renewables, according to an industry expert.

Niveshen Govender, CEO of the South African Wind Energy Association (Sawea), expressed optimism that wind generation capacity would increase tenfold from the current 3.4GW installed currently. He was citing the Renewable Energy Grid Survey, which was presented by Eskom officials to both the solar PV and wind energy associations earlier this month.

The survey, conducted over roughly a month between March and April, also showed that there is a growing trend in wind and battery storage projects under development.

The survey shows, overall, 66GW of renewable energy projects in the pipeline – apart from wind; this includes solar PV coupled with support such as battery storage and gas.

During a panel discussion on Global Wind Day, hosted at renewable energy developer Red Rocket's offices in Cape Town last Thursday, Govender spoke on the impacts of the domestic wind power industry in South Africa.

"We have produced more than 38 000 gigawatt-hours of electricity. To really understand that, this is enough energy to supply 3.6-million average households here in South Africa annually," he explained.

Govender added that the economic benefits from the industry – which includes more than 23 000 jobs created and nearly R1-billion spent toward addressing social needs like education, healthcare and developing enterprises in local communities over the past 10 years – are also set to increase as more wind power is deployed.

Asked whether it is indeed possible to add 30GW in the next 10 years, Govender said this was "not far-fetched" as it would equate to about 3 000GW of wind projects added annually.

"I think it is possible, I think it is feasible, and I think we have sufficient skills in the country to develop these projects, to implement these projects, to build these projects and operate and maintain these projects," he said.

What has been a major hurdle in the expansion of renewables is a lack of grid capacity. In round six of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), about 23 wind projects lost out in being named preferred bidders because they were located in areas where there was no more grid capacity to accommodate them.

"The biggest stumbling block we face is depleted grid capacity to connect new renewable energy plants in resource-rich areas in the country," he explained.

Govender noted that there is a Transmission Development Plan for the country which shows more grid infrastructure must be built to accommodate upcoming renewable energy capacity, but there is misalignment when it comes to the timelines – specifically grid infrastructure rollout matching that of renewables.

A consultation paper released recently by Stellenbosch University's Centre for Sustainability Transitions and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, and the Blended Finance Task Force highlights that grid capacity must be expanded eight times faster than the current rate – this is up from 300km per year to 2 300km per year.

Govender said this is not a uniquely South African problem, as globally, other countries faced similar challenges and implemented battery storage projects and co-located wind and solar PV projects at the same grid connection points to optimise the available grid infrastructure in the short term. These are lessons South Africa can take.

"The simple truth stands – with no grid capacity, there is no future for renewable energy in South Africa," Govender lamented. "This will continue to cripple the energy system and our economy," he added.

Jason Cope, owner of VELD Renewables, who also participated in the discussion, shared similar views that the big bottleneck for renewables is grid capacity. He noted that in the industry's earliest beginnings, most developers rushed to the "windiest areas" in the country, which are now constrained.

However, Cope said in the past 18 months, technical planners in Eskom have been engaging in a concerted effort to address the grid capacity issue.

Eskom estimates that to add 53GW of new renewable energy, the country needs about 14 200km of new transmission lines by 2032.

The private sector, meanwhile, is open to building part of the transmission network to help ease the financial burden on Eskom.

"If there is a change, we are more than happy to build it," said Brian Cunningham of Red Rocket. If these independent power producers step in to build grid infrastructure, it would influence the cost of electricity tariffs, he highlighted.

"Someone has to pay for it," Cunningham said.

Govender similarly highlighted that there is "appetite" from independent power producers to absorb the cost of grid expansion.

"I think the mechanisms of how we do this becomes important. We have to make sure it is fair and transparent across the different entities trying to connect their projects, so we are looking at various possibilities of how this is done," said Govender.

With the private sector getting more involved, requests for bids would be needed. The private sector grid developers would have to take the capital cost "up front" and then find a way to share it among the IPPs that will use the grid for their projects, he explained.

Govender does not think there is a lack of funding for grid expansion – as this is provided for in the $8.5 billion pledge by rich nations to help South Africa decarbonise its economy by tackling changes in the energy sector – specifically supporting the rollout of renewables which requires grid expansion.

"I think the money is there. I think we need a plan as to how we develop the grid infrastructure and how we build it," said Govender. He added that grid expansion plans are to be led by Eskom.

"Again, there needs to be a legislative framework, there needs to be a procurement process, and there needs to be stakeholders coming together to agree to the approach," he said.