PCC’s Olver sees updating IRP to exclude new coal as key policy priority

22nd October 2021

By: Terence Creamer

Creamer Media Editor

     

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Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) executive director Dr Crispian Olver says updating South Africa’s energy policy to exclude any new coal capacity to 2030 and beyond while increasing the allocation for renewable energy to at least 30 GW by the end of the decade should be key priorities for the coming 24 months.

In a presentation delivered at the 2021 edition of Windaba, in Cape Town, Olver said that research had affirmed that a renewables-dominant electricity system would entail the lowest cost for South Africa, as well as the fact that the costs associated with increasing the country’s decarbonisation ambition were not as high as initially expected.

The PCC had, thus, recommended in June that government submit an improved Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ahead of the upcoming COP 26 climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland.

Cabinet subsequently endorsed a new NDC range of 420- to 350-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq) for 2030, which represents a marked improvement on its 2015 pledge of 614 Mt CO2-eq to 398 Mt CO2-eq.

The upper-bound figure is in line with current policies, including the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP 2019), while the lower-bound figure would require adjustments to the IRP 2019, to cater for additional renewable energy, some earlier retirements of existing coal capacity and no new coal.

The IRP 2019 still includes an allocation of 1 500 MW for new private coal, but the overall coal installed base is meant to fall from over 37 000 MW to about 33 300 MW by 2030, with the installed base of wind and solar photovoltaic meant to rise to at least 26 000 MW over the same period.

The PCC, which was established in December 2020 to develop a common vision for the just transition to a low-carbon economy, has also published a report showing that it is technically feasible and economically optimal to transition the economy to net zero by 2050.

Drawing on the National Business Initiative’s Net-Zero Pathways work, Olver said that, to achieve such an outcome and to stabilise South Africa’s load-shedding-prone electricity system, the following interventions should be prioritised over the coming 24 months:

  • updating policy with no new coal to 2030 and beyond, while identifying solutions for early decommissioning and pursuing noncoal Eskom plant repowering and repurposing;
  • increasing the allocation for renewable energy in the IRP to at least 30 GW by 2030, while preparing to fast-track procurement to ensure that there is 100 GW of renewables in the system by 2040 and 150 GW by 2050;
  • allocating funds to researching system inertia solutions;
  • building stakeholder consensus around gas as a transitional fuel;
  • developing a national green hydrogen strategy and kicking off green hydrogen pilot projects in partnership with potential long-term off-take markets;
  • drafting an integrated energy plan aligned to the new energy procurement process;
  • initiating a market reform study, while implementing a future market and tariff structure,
  • establishing a strategic grid expansion task team;
  • developing a national renewables industrialisation and localisation plan; and
  • launching a reskilling and redeployment programme for displaced workers in the coal value chain.

Olver noted that Eskom had proposed an accelerated roll-out of renewable energy to match coal retirements.

It showed that, with 22 GW of coal retirements between 2022 and 2035, new build capacity additions would be needed to meet the system adequacy requirements.

Some 50 GW, comprising 53% wind, 26% solar, 11% battery storage, 6% gas and 4% from the delayed Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme projects, would be required to ensure security of supply.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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