Brazil-based major aerospace group Embraer published its 20-year Market Outlook, for regional and smaller airliners with up to 150 seats, at the Dubai Air Show on Monday. The Outlook covered both turboprop and jet aircraft.

The group expected that, following the Covid-19 pandemic, global air passenger traffic would grow at an annual rate of 3.3% until 2040. In Africa, the annual passenger demand growth rate would be 3.8%, behind only the Asia-Pacific (including China) and Latin America, which would both have growth rates of 4.2%. The Middle East would come in at 3.6%, the ‘Commonwealth of Independent States’ (CIS – Russia and most other States that once made up the Soviet Union) at 3.5%, Europe at 2.3% and North America at 2%. 

In the near-term, 2019 air passenger demand levels would be restored during 2024. And by 2029, the Asia-Pacific would account for 41% of total global air passenger demand, while Europe and North America combined would contribute 36%, with the remaining 23% spread across the rest of the world.

The company identified three fundamental trends that would shape future travel and aircraft demand. These were the environment (airlines would re-equip with more fuel-efficient aircraft), digitalisation (to respond to technological advances and increased use of videoconferencing and working-from-home) and regionalisation (‘re-shoring’ to restore local or regional production and so shorten supply chains and minimise the disruption risk).

In total, Embraer expected 10 900 new airliners in the category of up to 150 seats to be acquired between now and 2040. These would be subdivided into 8 640 jets and 2 260 turboprops. The total market value for all these aircraft would be $650-billion.

Of the 8 640 new jets, 2 710 (or 31.4%) would be delivered to North American operators, while Asia-Pacific carriers would take 2 160, or 25%. Europe would account for 1 770 (20.5%), Latin America for 760 (8.8%), the CIS for 640 (7.4%), the Middle East for 320 (3.7%) and Africa for 280 (3.2%).

Regarding the 2 260 new turboprops that would be acquired, 900 (or 39.8%) would go to the Asia-Pacific, 430 (19%) to Europe and the same number (and percentage) to North America. Africa and Latin America would take 180 (or 8%) each. The CIS would acquire 100 (4.4%) and the Middle East 40 (1.8%).