The International Air Transport Association (Iata), which is the representative body for the global airline industry, has urged governments to cooperate with the sector to implement confidence-building measures, to deal with the expected slow recovery in air passenger demand. National travel restrictions and lockdowns put in place to counter the Covid-19 pandemic have caused air passenger demand to collapse by 80% or more.

“The passenger business came to a halt with unilateral government actions to stop the spread of the virus,” pointed out Iata director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “The industry restart, however, must be built with trust and collaboration. And it must be guided by the best science we have available.”

Iata had commissioned a survey of recent travellers. The results showed that, while 60% expected to resume travelling within one of two months of the containment of the pandemic, 40% reported that they could delay resuming travel for six or more months. Moreover, 69% of respondents said they could delay restarting travelling until they had stabilised their personal financial situations.

“Time is of the essence,” he stressed. “We must start building a framework for a global approach that will give people the confidence that they need to travel once again. And, of course, this will need to be shored-up by economic stimulus measures to combat the impact of a recession.”

There were already early indications of a reluctance by people to resume air travel. These came from domestic flight data in Australia and China, two countries where reported new Covid-19 infections had fallen into single figures. (In normal times, domestic flights around the world carry 58% of all air passengers.)

In Australia, the impact of the pandemic caused domestic flights to fall to just 10% of the levels before Covid-19. Despite the fact that the level of new infections had fallen to close to zero, Australian domestic air travel had so far shown no recovery at all. In China, the sharp fall in new infections did see an upswing in domestic air travel from mid-February to early March. But this rise halted and then plateaued at just over 40% of pre-Covid-19 levels.

“In some economies, the spread of Covid-19 has slowed to the point where governments are planning to lift the most severe elements of social distancing restrictions,” noted De Juniac. “But an immediate rebound from the catastrophic fall in passenger demand appears unlikely. People still want to travel. But they are telling us that they want clarity on the economic situation and will likely wait for at least a few months after any ‘all-clear’ before returning to the skies. As countries lift restrictions, confidence boosting measures will be critical to restart travel and stimulate economies.”