Global gold mine production growth will rebound in the coming years, underpinned by higher prices and mergers between major mining firms, a new report by Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Group states.

The report notes that major mergers among global miners and an improving gold price outlook will boost global mine supply in the coming quarters.

Fitch Solutions forecasts that global gold production will increase from 106-million ounces this year to 133-million ounces by 2029, representing growth of about 2.5% a year on average.

This would be an acceleration from the average growth of just 1.2% over 2016 to 2019.

In China, production is expected to remain roughly stagnant during 2020 to 2029, with an average yearly growth rate of 0.2%.

This marks a notable slowdown compared with the average yearly growth rate of 3.1% over the previous decade. The country’s gold output has been challenged by strict environmental regulations and closure of smaller mines and falling ore grades in general, says Fitch Solutions.

Meanwhile, Australia’s gold sector is expected to see modest production growth over the coming year, supported by a strong project pipeline, rising gold prices and competitive operating costs.  

Fitch forecasts that the country’s production will increase from 11.7-million ounces this year to 14.2-million ounces by 2029, averaging 2.2% yearly growth.

Further, Russian gold production growth is expected to accelerate in 2020 to 2021 as domestic demand for gold is buoyed by the possibility of further Western sanctions on State banks, which will respond by increasing their reserves of gold, says Fitch Solutions.

Gold output is expected to grow from 11.3-million ounces this year to 15.5-million ounces in 2029, representing an average yearly growth of 3.7%.  

Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions says the US gold mining sector is expected to continue to attract significant gold mining investment activity supported by the country’s history of gold exploration and known precious metal deposits.