Minister urges continuation of fibre-deployment push

25th October 2019

By: Natasha Odendaal

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

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While fibre infrastructure constitutes one of the key pillars that will establish the next generation of connectivity and is a critical enabler for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), the amount of fibre currently deployed is not “nearly adequate” to serve the future needs of the telecommunications industry.

Citing data from FTTX Council Africa, Communications and Digital Technologies Minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams says that, at the end of June, about 1.5-million end points had been passed and total connections exceeded 600 000, with 496 000 homes and over 114 000 business premises connected and billed.

“These are truly impressive numbers; however, we are also alive to the fact that we are still only scratching the tip of the iceberg.

“Fibre is potentially the most critical component of all telecommunications infrastructure. We have come to realise that, without fibre, we will not enter the fifth-generation (5G) race,” she told delegates at the recent FTTX Council Africa Conference.

At least six to eight times more fibre needs to be deployed to achieve South Africa’s 5G vision.

“If fibre is not there or there is no reliable technology, not even artificial intelligence will make a meaningful impact,” says Ndabeni-Abrahams, highlighting how 4IR will herald significant social, political, cultural and economic upheavals.

However, Frogfoot CEO Abraham van der Merwe says the jury is still out on whether the challenges of fibre deployment into far-flung or low-income regions can be overcome, noting that this is still unchartered territory that is only really being trialled now.

“Can we actually afford to take the fibre to where everyone wants it?”

By 2016, 162 000 homes had been passed by fibre.

Now fibre deployment is progressing at about 600 000 homes passed a year, with extrapolations indicating that, by 2023, 3.7-million homes will be passed.

“So, the next question really is: In terms of our fibre deployment in South Africa, can we actually sustain the growth that we have today? Are those homes really there?”

He explains that fibre cannot viably be taken to each of South Africa’s roughly 17-million households, as not everyone can afford the costs of fibre services; some homes are too far out, geographical density is critical to make deployment feasible and there needs to be a “decent cluster” of homes.

Currently, fibre roll-out is focused on the metropolitan areas and aimed at the top income, higher Living Standards Measure (LSM) brackets, which is in the region of 2.7-million homes.

Applying further filters between the top income groups, such as the need to have “decent” clusters and dense population, that number dwindles to roughly 2.4-million households, falling short of the extrapolated 3.7-million households.

“So, that leaves two categories: either you target lower-income groups or you go into the more rural areas [and] each presents different challenges,” Van der Merwe notes.

Deployment to the lower-income groups faces the challenges of affordability, collections from the unbanked, registration challenges, access to devices and access to content.

Even semirural areas face challenges such as a lack of population density, backhaul infrastructure challenges, the small market size, affordability, navigating local government and wireless Internet service provider interactions and larger land plots that drive up deployment costs.

Despite the issues with rural and lower LSM deployment, there has been activity in expansion, he adds.

Pioneers in rural deployment include Herotel, Frogfoot and Lightstuck, while lower LSM markets have been targeted by Vumatel and Frogfoot.

“There certainly are efforts being made to roll out into these lower LSM market brackets, because it is a large market and there are potential huge upsides going into this,” Van der Merwe notes.

“But the jury is still out as to whether the challenges will be overcome,” he notes, adding that the metro/higher LSM business model will need to be altered to viably enter these markets.

In the rural areas, the various operators have also been deploying fibre under the radar.

“So, certainly, there is a lot of activity, but we have to walk the long road to determine whether these efforts will be successful,” he concludes.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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