Eskom says IRP 2019 calls for accelerated grid investment

31st October 2019

By: Terence Creamer

Creamer Media Editor

     

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State-owned electricity producer Eskom is warning that the generation roadmap contained in the Integrated Resource Plan 2019 (IRP 2019) will require a material acceleration in the pace of investment in grid infrastructure so that the renewable-energy plants envisaged in the plan can be integrated in the timeframe outlined.

Alternatively, stakeholders should agree to build the new wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage plants that dominate the new-build portfolio to 2030 in regions of surplus grid capacity.

Such areas are typically located the northern parts of the country where the renewable resources are less potent than is the case in provinces such as the Northern Cape, the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape.

Speaking at the release of Eskom’s latest Transmission Development Plan (TDP) for the ten-year period from 2019 to 2029, group executive for transmission Segomoco Scheppers said that the utility was still in the process of modelling the impact of the IRP 2019 on the grid relative to the draft IRP 2018 on which the latest TDP is based.

The initial indications, however, pointed to the need to “expedite and bring forward some of the network development plans” outlined in the TDP, developed using the assumptions contained in the draft IRP 2018.

The TDP published on October 31 indicates that investments of R98.6-billion will be required over the ten-year period to ensure that the country’s grid infrastructure is able to integrate new generation sources and connect new areas of demand.

However, senior manager for strategic grid planning Ronald Marais noted that the IRP 2019 includes 4 118 MW of new capacity in the ten-year TDP window period that was not included in the draft IRP 2018.

There has, in addition, been a rephasing of capacity into the period 2022 to 2025, during which 9 793 MW of mostly solar PV and wind capacity would need to be introduced.

“This new capacity and rephasing will require an acceleration of existing TDP projects, the development of new corridors and new local substation strengthening,” Marais told stakeholders in Johannesburg.

“Developing new transmission capacity in this time period will be challenging from a servitude, environmental impact assessment and capital perspective.”

Marais argued, therefore, that existing capacity would most likely have to be exploited first, which would require coordination between stakeholders to direct investments to those areas of surplus capacity.

Eskom’s analysis indicates that such capacity resides in Mpumalanga, the Western Cape, Limpopo, the Free State and the North West, while the grid is under pressure in the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape.

In recent bidding rounds most of the demand from renewables developers was arising in the Northern Cape, however.

Marais indicated that upcoming procurement processes might need to include a spatial dimension so as to direct projects to areas of grid capacity.

To achieve such an outcome, would require greater collaboration between renewable-energy associations, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, the Independent Power Producer Office and Eskom.

He was heartened by recent moves, motivated by the desire to facilitate a ‘just transition’ for coal and gold mining towns, to develop Renewable Energy Industrial Development Zones in eMalahleni and Klerksdorp. Both areas have surplus grid capacity.

The TDP, which is updated yearly in line with a regulatory requirement set by South Africa’s Grid Code, was published in the same week that government confirmed that Eskom’s transmission entity and system operator would be unbundled from the utility’s generation and distribution units, while remaining under Eskom Holdings.

A deadline of the end of March has been set for the functional separation of the transmission entity, which will have its own interim board. Full legal separation is scheduled for the end of 2021.

Scheppers said the release of the Eskom Special Paper by Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, together with the publication of the IRP 2019, provided welcome clarity, which was essential for credible planning and to support long-term investments.

The TDP itself shows that R79-billion of the R98.6-billion is required for projects that would support grid reliability, as well as the integration of committed generation and the connection of new loads and generation to the system.

A further R20-billion is required for the acquisition of servitudes, the completion of environmental impact assessments and refurbishment projects.

The plan also points to a significant change, over the period, in the composition and distribution of generation sources, as Eskom’s older coal-fired power stations start to be decommissioned and new renewable-energy plants are introduced.

Over the planning period, there would be an increase in conventional generation of about 12 000 MW, underpinned by the completion of Medupi and Kusile, together with 13 000 MW of renewable energy.

To provide for an adequate and reliable transmission system, Eskom plans to increase the country’s 33 000-km transmission infrastructure by about 4 800 km of extra high-voltage lines, while adding 35 000 MVA of transformer capacity.

In addition, significant investments would be made in the renewal of existing transmission substations and lines.

Edited by Creamer Media Reporter

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