Global sales of electric cars grew by 41% last year, despite the shock of Covid-19, says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its ‘Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021’ report.

The IEA’s Jacopo Tattini, who coordinated the analysis of the sales data and the production of the report, says many people expected the electric car market to collapse in 2020, for reasons such as the fact that these vehicles are currently still more expensive than conventional cars.

However, about three-million new electric cars were registered worldwide in 2020, which means that they held a 4.6% share of the market at the end of last year, equating to almost one in 20 new cars sold globally.

The bulk of this growth came from Europe and China, and, for the first time, Europe has become the world’s largest electric car market, with sales more than doubling, to 1.4-million, notes Tattini.

By comparison, the global conventional automotive market contracted by 16% in 2020.

Last year’s growth in electric car sales brought the number of electric cars on the world’s roads to more than ten-million, with another roughly one-million electric vans, heavy trucks and buses also navigating traffic. (One in every seven buses sold in 2020 was electric.

The three main reasons for the electric car boom seen last year were supportive regulatory frameworks, such as increasingly strict emission standards; additional incentives to safeguard electric car sales from the economic downturn; and a growing number of electric car models, as well as a continued reduction in battery costs, says Tattini.

In addition, automakers offered consumers 370 electric car models in 2020 – a 40% year-on-year increase.

Looking ahead, 18 of the 20 largest automakers have announced their intentions to further increase the number of available models and boost the production of electric light-duty vehicles.

These automakers account for 90% of all global auto sales.

Growing Appetite While subsidies have played an important role in the purchase of electric cars, there is a growing appetite for this technology among drivers, emphasises Tattini.

Consumers spent $120-billion on electric cars in 2020, up 50% on the previous year.

This increase is mostly due to increased sales and the fact that the average price of electric cars was a bit higher than in 2019.

However, in contrast to increased consumer spending, government forked out much less to support electric cars in 2020, at around $14-billion.

Overall, the share of government spending out of the total spending on electric cars has been steadily declining since 2015, and is now at 10% on a global average.

“While incentives continue to be essential, this trend suggests that electric cars are increasingly becoming attractive to consumers,” says Tattini.

There are early signs that 2021 may deliver another good year for electric car sales, he adds.

During the first quarter of 2021, electric car sales rose by around 140%, compared with the same period last year, reaching 1.1-million units.

The rebound for conventional cars was less pronounced during this period, says Tattini, although he does not quantify this jump.

The result is that the market share of electric cars in the first quarter of 2021 was twice as high as in the same period last year.

Looking further ahead, based on current trends and policies, the IEA projects that the number of electric cars, vans, heavy trucks and buses on the road worldwide will reach 145-million by 2030 – or one in every 14 vehicles seen on the street.

However, the global fleet could reach 230-million units if governments worldwide accelerate their efforts to reach international climate and energy goals.

The IEA ‘Global Electric Vehicle Outlook’ report notes that the total global electric vehicle ( EV) fleet in 2020 consumed more than 80 TWh of electricity (mainly for electric two- or three-wheelers in China), which equates to today’s total electricity demand in Belgium.

(The most electrified road transport mode today is two- and three-wheeled vehicles, such as motorcycles and mopeds, at a global fleet of 25-million units, with the bulk sold in Asia. In 2020, almost one in three of these vehicles sold was electric.)

Electricity demand from EVs accounts for only about 1% of current electricity total final consumption worldwide.

Electricity demand for EVs is projected to reach between 525 TWh and 860 TWh by 2030, depending on the measures taken to reduce climate change.

By 2030, electricity demand for EVs will account for at least 2% of global electricity total final consumption.

The IEA report states that expanding EV stock enhances energy security by reducing oil use, which today accounts for around 90% of total final consumption in the transport sector.

Globally, the projected EV fleet in 2030 will displace between two-million barrels a day (mb/d) and 3.5 mb/d of diesel and pretrol, up from about 0.5 mb/d in 2020.