Europe-based global aerospace group Airbus has predicted that the global fleet of passenger and freighter aircraft will increase by more than 100% over the next 20 years, requiring the production of more than 39 000 new aircraft.

To be more precise, Airbus expects today’s total global airliner and freighter fleet of almost 23 000 aircraft to grow to 47 680 by 2038. The forecast growth for air traffic would be 4.3% a year. The operation and maintenance of these aeroplanes would require 550 000 new pilots and 640 000 new technicians.

“The 4% annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short-term economic shocks and geopolitical disturbances,” highlighted Airbus chief commercial officer and Airbus iternational head Christian Scherer. “Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect.”

The resilience of aviation is evident in the increase of over 100% globally in air traffice over the past 20 years. “Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP (gross domestic product) growth and supports 65-million livelihoods, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade,” he reported.

Aviation, Airbus pointed out, was playing a crucial and growing role in linking the world’s major cities. This was especially so in emerging markets, because geography or costs made alternative forms of travel impracticable, and because emerging market populations were the ones most likely to want to travel. Urban areas, worldwide, were key drivers of GDP growth, and aviation megacities were driving the global aviation network and would continue to do so.

The group expected the 2038 total of 47 680 aircraft to be composed of 39 210 new aircraft and 8 470 that were in operation today. Of the new aeroplanes, 14 210 would replace existing aircraft, while 25 000 would serve to meet expanding demand. Latest-generation aircraft were much more fuel efficient than their predecessors, which was helping to drive the replacement of older aircraft with new ones. This would also result in increasing the decarbonisation of air transport and the carbon-neutral growth of the sector.

Airbus has reduced its market segmentation to just three categories – small, medium and large. It forecast that, up to 2038, the market would require 29 720 airliners and freighters for the small segment, 5 370 for the medium segment, and 4 120 for the large segment.

This segmentation was not based on just the size and capacity of the aircraft but also on how airlines actually used them. With regard to Airbus products, the small segment comprised the A220 and A320 families, but the long-range and extra-long-range A321LR and A321XLR versions of the A321neo could operate in the medium segment (the suffix -neo stands for ‘new engine option’). However, Airbus’s main offerings in the medium segment were the A330 and A330 neo families. But the A330 neo also fitted into the large segment, along with the A350 XWB (and the A380, which was going out of production). The A220 and A320/A320 neo families were single- aisle aircraft, while the A330/A330 neo and A350 XWB families (and the A380) were wide-body designs.