Getting some previously shut sectors back into safe production is key to getting the economy moving again, as has been done with the phased easing of the lockdown, suggests business promotion agency Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) CEO Busi Mavuso.

However, she fears that it will prove challenging to try and open parts of the pre-crisis economy in isolation.

“Everything is connected. Our objective should rather be to allow as much economic activity as possible, provided it meets health and safety requirements.”

She explains that economies are complex, adaptive systems, whereby an intervention at one point has unexpected consequences elsewhere.

The five-week lockdown in South Africa will be eased with the introduction of a five-level restriction process that will ease the country and its business sectors back into operation as risk level drops and government health facilities become more prepared. These alert levels come into effect in May.

Certain industries and businesses will be able to operate at different levels subject to meeting health protocols and in areas that meet specific health requirements. “This will result in a patchwork of parts of the economy that open while others remain shut,” notes Mavuso.

However, she points out that there are going to be difficulties. “Supply chains stretch far and wide and few are truly independent from others. In a sense, everything is connected. The approach of letting certain parts of the economy operate, either geographically or segmentally, is almost inevitably going to run up against supply chain blockages.”

But, Mavuso also notes that economies adapt. “Those blockages can be met with ingenuity and innovation.”

This is evidenced through some companies shifting production to meet the healthcare challenges face in South Africa, such as brewers switching production to hand sanitisers and vehicle manufacturers switching to producing face masks.

Others, she highlights, have launched new mobile applications to help users deal with the crisis, providing information or connecting people. “These are examples that show that economies are not static, they adapt to the opportunities and work around blockages.”

In the economic response, however, Mavuso notes that she has not seen much discussion about stimulating this adaptive function, adding that policy makers should look into what will enable the economy to adapt to the crisis faster. This should be looked into, instead of the traditional, “what parts of the pre-crisis economy can we resume?”.

She suggests that South Africa, and many countries for that matter, “may never go back to a pre-crisis economy.”

Work practises will change and people and companies will have to adapt, she hints, noting that working from home is important and is likely to remain so for a long time. “We should find ways to make it easier for people [to work from home].”

In this regard, she highlights factors such as access to equipment, such as computers and broadband. “Are we serious about what people need, rather than what we think they need?” Mavuso questions.

There should not be attempts to predict this, she notes. Instead, Mavuso says business should enable access to anything that can be safely delivered.

The distribution side of the economy is critical in enabling economic activity, according to her. And, although the production side can adapt, Mavuso says new ways of working that ensure physical distancing is done for production to happen safely, can be developed.

For example, she says retailers who sold out of bricks and mortar can switch to selling online if the logistics are available for it. “One can imagine the phone-based commerce to allow spaza shops to deliver in the townships.”

With many township businesses being services-based, Mavuso says it is not difficult to imagine something such as an appliance repair and rentals business functioning through a safe logistics system.

“If we are able to provide economic infrastructure such as data and courier services to enable the movement of goods, the economy will adapt faster and more activity would take place than otherwise.”

Meanwhile, she notes that it remains to be seen how the phased lockdown works in practice. “Clear communication is going to be important as the intersecting levels will be complex for businesses and consumers to understand. Understanding must extend to those tasked with enforcing the lockdowns, and the scenes of law enforcement abusing their power is a warning that even simple rules are difficult to enforce.”

Mavuso says that, ultimately, all South Africans should work toward enabling the economy to work within a set of clear guidelines driven by health needs, and then allowing innovation to respond. “We needed decisive intervention from government in the face of an economy that is set to reel from the effects of Covid-19. It was delivered.”

The R500-billion stimulus injection into the economy to deal with the healthcare fallout and to look after the most disadvantaged in society is more than ten times what the country spent in preparing to host the soccer World Cup ten years ago, she highlights.

“The success of the stimulus hinges primarily on the country’s ability to deal with the structural reforms that we have pushed for over the past two years, since the change in political leadership. At the top of the list of priorities is the future of our State-owned enterprises.

“There is a lot riding on the solutions to recast the economy for much-needed growth in a post Covid-19 world. It is a chance afforded to all 90% of the world’s nations affected by this crisis,” states Mavuso.

Over the next few weeks, she says the economics cluster has to emerge to “breathe confidence” into the country as much as the ministries tied to the health crisis have done.

“This must be done bearing in mind that lives still matter more than commerce,” Mavuso concludes.