Research service, BloombergNEF (BNEF), expects yearly passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales to rise to ten-million units in 2025, 28-million in 2030 and 56-million by 2040.

More than two-million electric vehicles were sold in 2018, up from just a few thousand in 2010.

By 2040, says BNEF in its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 (EVO 2019) report, 57% of all passenger vehicle sales, and more than 30% of the global passenger vehicle fleet are expected to be electric.

BNEF believes sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) passenger vehicles have already peaked, and may never recover unless EV growth falters, or major economies such as China invest in significant ICE stimulus programmes.

The growth in EV sales is driven by increasing EV affordability and strict emission regulations.
 
As EV battery prices keep falling, BNEF expects price parity between EVs and ICE vehicles by the mid-2020s in most segments, even though there will be wide variation between geographies and vehicle segments.

Tightening emission regulations, both at city and national level, have seen automakers respond with a surge of new EV models set to launch in the next five years, notes BNEF.

This said, however, there are more than a billion vehicles on the road and EVs are still less than 0.5% of the global vehicle fleet.

Changing this will take time.

The total global passenger vehicle fleet will continue to rise to 1.68-billion vehicles in 2040, driven mostly by demand in emerging economies.

This is lower than many other forecasters, says BNEF EVO 2019, as the researcher sees ride-hailing, car-sharing, urbanisation, demographics and – eventually – vehicle autonomy, cut deeper into vehicle demand growth, particularly in the 2030s.

“By 2040 we expect 500-million passenger EVs on the road and over 40-million commercial EVs.”

BNEF indeed sees electrification spreading to vehicle segments other than passenger cars. The electrification of the global bus fleet is already well under way with more than 400 000 electric buses on the road.

Commercial electric van and truck sales are set to accelerate in the 2020s.

By 2040, BNEF expects 56% of light commercial vehicle sales and 31% of medium commercial vehicles in China, the US and Europe to be electric.

Long-haul, heavy duty trucks will be harder to electrify, with natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells playing a role here.

BNEF EVO 2019 says China continues to lead EV sales in all segments in its forecast.

China will account for 48% of the passenger EV sales market in 2025, 34% in 2030 and 26% in 2040.

BNEF is Bloomberg’s primary research service, and covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities.