Socioeconomic-focused nonprofit organisation Afrika Tikkun Foundation (ATF) has highlighted the need for South Africa to act urgently to prevent its poorest people from bearing the brunt of the impact of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Food supply shortages and commodity price hikes as a result of the war in Eastern Europe have already started emerging, the foundation reports, particularly in terms of wheat and maize, fertiliser, fuel, bread and potassium (an ingredient for fertiliser). 

ATF expresses concern about the warnings by the farming industry suggesting small-scale farmers and the poor are already suffering the consequences of the geopolitical crisis in Europe.

Despite experiencing two consecutive good seasons for grain harvesting, South Africa may have a food security crisis looming as a result of price inflation.

The international entities that provide the South African farming industry with fertiliser have experienced shortages of materials such as potassium, which is sourced from Russian producers. This has, in turn, affected food production prices in South Africa which could be passed on to the South African consumer.

This puts a damper on an otherwise thriving agricultural sector which has been a standout performer in the economy throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, the sector grew by 12.2% in the last quarter of 2021.

“The fact that agricultural businesses across the sector have managed to thrive in the wake of global geopolitical tensions and in the midst of a pandemic is a testament to the resilience of the sector,” says ATF CEO Alef Meulenberg.

Industry body Agri South Africa’s Economic Centre of Excellence echoes ATF’s concerns, finding in a report that the escalating conflict in the Black Sea region is posing new challenges to global food markets with soaring prices and supply chain disruptions.

Hours after the first bomb sirens sounded in Kyiv, Ukraine, the rand weakened against the dollar, setting in motion a cascade of economic blows as oil and gold commodity prices soared along with that of grain and oilseed.

Recent reports that increased costs in the production of grains, including maize and wheat, could see a major bread price hike in three months' time are also concerning, ATF says, adding that the war’s effect on global grain supplies is already evident.

Ukraine and the Russian Federation account for a combined 30% of the world’s wheat exports.

Now affected by the growing conflict, the harbours of Odessa and the Black Sea serve as major conduits for international grain shipments from Ukraine.

ATF says Ukraine is also among the top exporters of barley, maize, sunflower and other oilseeds.

Analysts have found that sinking stock markets, soaring commodity prices and rising prices for oil and gas, will further drive up the price of fertiliser, and food prices are expected to follow suit.

“What is most worrying is that poor farmers, who consume more food than they sell, as well as the poorest buyers in these markets will suffer the most as demand pressures could drive prices up even higher.

“Amid these challenges it is more important than ever, to strengthen efforts to uplift agricultural business as one of the key employers and drivers of South Africa’s developing economy,” says Meulenberg.

As numerous reports by global and local experts have attested over the last two years, global economic pressures only further drive the racial and socioeconomic inequalities which exist in South Africa, ATF points out.

The ATF Urban Agripreneurship Incubation Project, which is currently operational in Diepsloot and Orange Farm, in Gauteng, aims at equipping unemployed youth with the skills to launch their own agribusinesses. 

It is also intended to increase access to nutritious fresh produce and create decent livelihoods in impoverished communities.

“At ATF, we believe that closing the gap between the predominantly black small-scale farming market and big commercial farming entities is the key to unlocking the true potential of the entire sector,” says Meulenberg.