An energy transition aligned with a 1.5 ºC-compatible climate pathway has net positive effects on job creation, a new report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) states.

The full ‘World Energy Transitions Outlook’ document shows that, under a scenario that limits the global average temperature increase to 1.5 ºC above preindustrial levels by the end of the century, jobs will exceed those created under a planned energy scenario, or PES, which reflects the current energy plans of governments.

“In the energy sector itself, the 1.5 ºC scenario sees the number of jobs peaking by 2030 at 137-million, or 26-million more than the PES. By 2050, the sector supports 122-million jobs under the 1.5 ºC scenario, still surpassing the PES by eight-million jobs,” the report states.

Of the 137-million energy-sector jobs by 2030, 107-million jobs are transition related, with energy-efficiency-related jobs reaching above 45-million and renewables contributing about 39-million.

“As the transition progresses beyond 2030, the further decrease of fossil fuel jobs in the 1.5 ºC scenario is more than compensated by gains in renewables, power grids and flexibility, and hydrogen jobs,” Irena states, adding that hydrogen jobs will remain stable at about two-million from 2030 to 2050.

Under the 1.5 ºC scenario, there will be 43-million jobs in renewable energy by 2050, almost double the number in the PES. In 2019, by contrast, there were 11.5-million jobs in the renewables sector, up from 7.3-million in 2012, representing 20% of the 58-million energy jobs worldwide.

Construction, installation and manufacturing are seen boosting renewables jobs during the next decade, with operations and maintenance (O&M) jobs gaining relative weight as the transition advances.

By 2050, under the 1.5 ºC scenario, the 43-million renewables jobs are distributed across the value chain, with 33% in construction and installation, 26% in biofuel supply, 21% in O&M and 20% in manufacturing.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the single-largest source of jobs in renewables across both scenarios, followed by biomass.

A recently published ‘Solar PV Industry Jobs Report’ states that between 11 000 and 13 000 O&M jobs could be created in South Africa by 2030, alongside 40 000 full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs every year in the preparation, development and construction of domestic solar projects.

The report, which was produced by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), defines FTE jobs as equal to one person working full time over the course of a year.

As with the Irena report, the South African report also confirms that the bulk of the initial jobs will be created in project construction, with O&M employment growing cumulatively as the installed base increases.

There is also potential, the CSIR report states, to create permanent jobs in the manufacturing of solar PV components should a consistent procurement policy be sustained.

The Irena report argues that the energy transition “brings immense opportunity for the development of local supply chains, creating value and jobs locally”.

Meanwhile, economy-wide employment under the 1.5 ºC scenario will also be higher, with the employment benefits peaking before 2030 and representing a difference of 1.44%, or 51.3-million jobs, over the PES.

As the transition progresses beyond 2030, these differences in employment over the PES gradually reduce until they reach 0.55%, or 20.2-million jobs, by 2050.

One of the main positive impacts on employment comes from investment in the energy transition, including grid enhancement, efficiency and renewable energy, the report explains.

Irena calculates that $131-trillion will need to flow into the energy system over the period to 2050 to support a 1.5 ºC pathway, translating into an average yearly funding requirement of $4.4-trillion, or about 5% of global gross domestic product.

“Between now and 2050, over 80% of the $131-trillion total must be invested in energy-transition technologies, including efficiency, renewables, end-use electrification, power grids, flexibility, hydrogen, and innovations designed to help emerging and niche solutions become economically viable.”

Induced and indirect effects also have a positive impact on economy-wide employment throughout the transition period to 2050, but the trade effects are negative, driven by the change in trade in fossil fuels.