Europe-based global aerospace group Airbus has predicted that the global fleet of passenger and freighter aircraft will increase by more than 100% over the next 20 years, requiring the production of more than 39 000 new aircraft. The group released its latest 20-year forecast on Wednesday.

To be more precise, Airbus expects today’s total global airliner and freighter fleet of almost 23 000 aircraft to grow to 47 680 by 2038. The forecast growth for air traffic would be 4.3% a year. The operation and maintenance of these aeroplanes would require 550 000 new pilots and 640 000 new technicians.

“The 4% annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances,” highlighted Airbus chief commercial officer and Airbus International head Christian Scherer. “Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect.”

The resilience of aviation has been shown by its global growth since 2000. Over the past 20 years, air traffic has increased by more than 100%. “Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP [gross domestic product] growth and supports 65-million livelihoods, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade,” he reported.

The group expects the 2038 total of 47 680 aircraft to be composed of 39 210 new aircraft and 8 470 that are in operation today. Of the new aeroplanes, 14 210 would replace existing aircraft while 25 000 would be to meet expanding demand.

Airbus has reduced its market segmentation to just three categories – small, medium and large. It forecasts that, until 2038, the market will require 29 720 airliners and freighters for the small segment, 5 370 for the medium one, and 4 120 in the large segment.

This segmentation is not based on just the size and capacity of the aircraft but also on how airlines actually use them. The small segment comprises the A220 and A320 families, but the long-range and extra long-range A321LR and A321XLR versions of the A321neo can operate in the medium segment. However, Airbus’ main offerings in the medium segment are the A330 and A330neo families. But the A330neo also fits into the large segment, along with the A350 XWB (and the A380, which is going out of production).

Latest generation aircraft are much more fuel efficient. The result would be the increasing de-carbonisation of air transport and the carbon-neutral growth of the sector.