The International Air Transport Association has reported that the growth in both air cargo and air passenger traffic in January decelerated, in comparison to December last year. (Iata is the global representative body for the airline industry.)

Regarding air cargo, globally, in January this was 2.7% up on the figure for January 2021. But December last year had recorded year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Air cargo capacity in January this year was 11.4% greater in year-on-year terms, but still 8.9% down on January 2019 (that is, pre-Covid-19 pandemic) capacity. Growth was being slowed by disruptions in supply chains and deteriorating economic conditions.

“Demand growth of 2.7% in January was below expectation, following the 9.3% recorded in December,” reported Iata director-general Willie Walsh. “This likely reflects a shift towards the more normal growth rate of 4.9% expected for this year. Looking ahead, however, we can expect cargo markets to be impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. Capacity is expected to come under greater pressure and rates are likely to rise.”

Africa was the Iata region which reported the strongest air cargo growth in January, achieving 12.4% in year-on-year terms. Over the same period, African air cargo capacity increased by 13%. (The second-best performing region, year-on-year, was Latin America, up 11.9%, while the worst-performing region was the Middle East, down 4.6%.)  

Total air passenger demand this past January was 82.3% higher than in January 2021. But, on a seasonally adjusted basis, it was 4.9% down on that in December 2021. Domestic air travel in January 2022 was up by 41.5% in year-on-year terms but, again using seasonally adjusted figures, down 7.2% in month-on-month terms. International air passenger traffic in January had rocketed 165.6%, year-on-year, but declined by (a seasonally adjusted) 2.2%, month-on-month.

“The recovery in air travel continued in January, despite hitting a speed bump called [Covid-19] Omicron,” he affirmed. “Strengthened border controls did not stop the spread of the variant. But where population immunity was strong, the public health systems were not overwhelmed. Many governments are now adjusting Covid-19 policies to align with those for other endemic viruses. This includes lifting travel restrictions that have had such a devastating impact on lives, economies and the freedom to travel.”

With regard to air passenger traffic, Africa was Iata’s second worst performing region, with a year-on-year increase in January 2022 of 21.3%. (The worst-performing region was the Asia-Pacific, up 19.4%, year-on-year, while the best-performing region was Europe, up 161.4%.)