Africa will need just over 1 000 new airliners over next 20 years, reports Boeing
US major airliner manufacturer Boeing has forecast that African airlines will need to acquire 1 030 new airliners, worth $160-billion, over the next 20 years. This prediction was contained in the company’s latest 'Africa Commercial Outlook' report. Further, the associated aftermarket business, including maintenance and repair, would be worth another $235-billion, taking the complete African airline market opportunity between now and 2040 to a total value of $395-billion.
“Africa has healthy opportunities to expand travel and tourism, coinciding with increasing urbanisation and rising incomes,” affirmed Boeing Commercial Marketing MD for the Middle East and Africa Randy Heisey. “African carriers are well-positioned to support inter-regional traffic growth and capture market share by offering services that efficiently connect passengers and enable commerce within the continent.”
The report covers the whole of the continent. The forecast is made against the background of a predicted annual economic growth rate for Africa of 3% during the next two decades. Boeing expects trade, economic cooperation and thus air travel to be stimulated by initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market.
Africa’s gross domestic product, which fell last year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, will regain its 2019 level this year. African private consumption has proven resilient. The continent’s working age population, which numbered 540-million in 2015, is expected to reach 1.6-billion by 2040 (for comparison, China’s working age population in that year is forecast to be 809-million, and that of India, 980-million). The number of African households in the middle income band is predicted to grow by about 90% between now and 2035.
Rising income will lead to increased air travel. Significantly, while total African air passenger traffic is forecast to grow at 5.4% a year until 2040 (which would be the third fastest such growth rate in the world), intra-African air passenger traffic is expected to grow even more rapidly, at 6.5% a year. Boeing expects especially strong increases in air traffic between Southern Africa and East Africa (including the Horn of Africa and north-east Africa, except Egypt).
In terms of categories of aircraft, 70% of Africa’s future new airliner acquisitions, totalling 740 aeroplanes, will be single-aisle airliners. These will mainly serve domestic and intra-African routes. To service long-haul (especially intercontinental) routes, 250 widebody aircraft will be required, in both passenger and freighter variants. Of total deliveries, only 20% would be to replace existing aircraft, with 80% being acquired to meet rising demand. Crewing and supporting these new aircraft would require 19 000 new pilots, 24 000 new cabin crew members and 20 000 new technicians.
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