After a year of considerable shock for African energy markets, the African Energy Chamber’s 'Africa Energy Outlook 2021' report analyses the upcoming challenges and opportunities arising from a post-Covid-19 recovery on the continent.
During a webinar launching the report on November 10, the chamber called on all industry stakeholders to work together on a reform agenda to keep Africa's natural resources competitive and to create more jobs.
The report notes that the sector has been hard hit by the pandemic. In the short term, the outlook for the African oil and gas industry remains marked by Covid-19 and uncertain market conditions, which is expected to result in a $30-billion cut in capital expenditure spending for this year and next.
The chamber has identified a further $80-billion of investment whose sanctioning will depend on improving market conditions, along with bold policy and fiscal reforms from African regulators.
The chamber said that, in the short term, the outlook can improve if countries apply more competitive regimes.
This would help unlock 4.4-billion barrels of liquids and $100-billion of additional investments by 2030.
South Western Africa is expected to emerge as the next energy frontier on the continent on the back of high-impact wells coming up in 2021 and 2022, the chamber forecasts.
The continent’s production of oil and gas is expected to increase in 2021 as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries sanctions ease and on the back of increased oil output from Libya and increased gas production from Algeria and Egypt.
After a year of historic crisis, the report offers guidance and solutions for African energy stakeholders to navigate the difficult climate and support a strong recovery in 2021 and beyond.
The pandemic notably came at a particularly difficult moment in Africa, exacerbating already challenging market conditions on the back of a competitive US shale industry, the delay of major projects owing to regulatory uncertainty and increasing global attention on decarbonisation.
The report provides detailed information in areas of critical importance, and includes sections examining jobs and employment, cash flow and profit forecasts, the expenditure and investment outlook, carbon emissions, oil and gas market projections, and regional production outlook.
Pressing issues, including OPEC’s production cuts, ongoing regulatory reforms, the impact of Covid-19 by region and country, and offshore drilling demand across multiple continental shelves, are analysed in detail.
The report identifies key exploration prospects and provides production forecasts and overall investment perspectives.
It also presents the growing trend of electricity demand on the Africa continent and highlights the investments needed to close the demand and supply gap.
African Energy Chamber senior VP Verner Ayukegba said the chamber was hopeful that the report would serve as a basis for sound decisions towards a thriving energy industry on the continent.
Speaking during the launch, South African businessperson Nosizwe Nokwe-Macamo said that South Africa was experiencing positive development in the oil and gas sector from a legislative perspective, in terms of the Draft Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill, which is out for public comment.
She noted that there were already signs of implementation of the aims of the Bill, such as the implementation of a liquefied natural gas hub at the Coega.