Total global air cargo demand increased by 1.5%, year-on-year (y-o-y), in August, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. (IATA is the global representative body for the airline industry.) International air cargo demand rose by 1.2%. This was the first y-o-y increase in air cargo demand for 19 months. Total global air cargo capacity grew by 12.2% (11.8% for international capacity) y-o-y, in August. This growth was the result of a y-o-y jump of 30% in airliner belly-hold capacity, as airlines increased their flights to meet the peak northern summer season travel demand.
IATA noted that while manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the new export orders PMI had both improved in August, compared to July, they were still below the key 50-point mark. Manufacturing output in August had been 49.4, and export orders PMI had been 47. Consequently, global manufacturing production was continuing its current decline, but this trend was decelerating.
The association also noted that cross-border trade, world-wide, had decreased 3.2%, y-o-y, in July (not August). This was the fourth consecutive month of cooling demand. Regarding inflation in the major markets, in August it rose in the US. It also rose in China, but China has been battling deflation. In Europe and Japan, inflation fell.
“Air cargo demand grew by 1.5% over the previous August,” reiterated IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “This is the first [y-o-y] growth in 19 months, so it is certainly welcome news. But it is off a low 2022 base and market signals are mixed. Looking ahead, while many uncertainties remain, we can take some optimism from PMI data moving towards positive territory. This is particularly significant as we head into air cargo’s traditional peak year-end season.”
Of IATA’s six regions, in August three of them recorded y-o-y cargo demand increases, while the other three suffered declines.
The best-performing region was Latin America, with a jump of 6.2% in August; in July, it had recorded a y-o-y increase of just 0.5%. The second-best performance came from the Asia-Pacific, with an August increase of 4.9%; in July, the figure had been 2.3%. The Middle East ranked third, with 1.4% in August (as against a 0.1% decrease in July).
The region with the smallest y-o-y decline in demand in August was Europe, at minus 0.2%, but this was better than the region’s performance in July, which had been minus 1%. North America recorded minus 1.2% in August, but again this was better than its July figure, which had been minus 5.4%. Africa was the worst-performing region; not only did it record a y-o-y demand of minus 4.7% in August, but this was also significantly worse than its performance in July, which had been plus 2.3%. IATA cited a decline in demand on the routes between Asia and Africa as a significant factor in Africa’s performance in August.