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The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) seasonally adjusted composite trade activity index (TAI) moved slightly into positive territory in April, improving by four index points to 51 but remaining below the 56 recorded in December and the 62 in January.
The nonseasonally adjusted TAI of 49 in April remained at the same level as in April 2014, with medium-term trading conditions likely to remain in the ”middle-of-the-road”.
Sacci’s sales volumes subindex dipped by four index points month-on-month to 51 in April, while the new orders subindex narrowed from 55 in March to 50 in April.
“Foreign trade appears to be improving, as both import and export volumes increased, while domestic demand remains under pressure, given real household and public sector spending constraints,” the chamber said on Tuesday.
Supplier deliveries had, meanwhile, improved from 42 to 44, while the inventories index showed a strong improvement of seven index points to 54 in April.
The sales price index remained unchanged in April at 62, while input prices declined slightly by one point to 69.
“The somewhat higher dollar crude oil price is of concern given that other costs, such as electricity, also appear to be heading for higher levels in the near future.
“April saw the tariff of electricity directly provided by [energy utility] Eskom increasing by more than 10%. The weak rand remains a concern as large quantities of inputs and consumer goods are imported,” it outlined.
Moreover, price expectations hardened again in April, as both the sales and input price expectations indices rose to 64 and 72 after declining to 63 and 69 respectively in March.
In following the TAI, the seasonally adjusted trade expectations index increased by two points to 54 from 52 in March, as expectations for sales volumes increased by four index points to 62 in April.
Expected and current employment prospects, meanwhile, deteriorated as the expectations and current indices declined by one and three points respectively to 45 and 47