On Tuesday the Commercial Aviation Association of South Africa (Caasa) released its composite index of aviation activity for the fourth quarter of last year (4Q17). The Caasa Aviation Activity Index (CAAI) is created using 25 different indicators.
It is designed to provide a measure of economic activity in the commercial aviation industry that is balanced and objective. Because buying and selling aircraft creates short-term volatility, due to the small numbers but high prices involved, the CAAI incorporates a trend based on a three-month moving average.
Six key overall trends have been identified. The first, as listed by Caasa, is that the value of the index rose a little during 4Q17 to 115.6. This represents an increase of 15.6% over the CAAI base period of 1Q14.
“In the process, the index value has further consolidated its modest recovery from a disappointing first quarter, which saw it slipping below the base period level of 100 for the first time,” noted Caasa in its press release. “A highlight of the latest CAAI is the reversal of the downward trend in the 3-month moving average, which is now virtually on par with the index value.”
The fourth trend identified is that just under a third of the indicators (eight out of 25) showed improvement between 3Q17 and 4Q17. These, however, included indicators with a relatively heavy weighting in the compilation of the index.
Fifth, the CAAI shows that commercial aviation activity in South Africa has in general matched the weak performance of the national economy from 2014 to 2017. Last but not least, the main force behind the improvement in the CAAI since the start of the year has been the value of aeroplane imports and air traffic movements at most of South Africa’s largest airports.