Gas will be a springboard for a low-carbon economy, as it will deter new investment in coal and complement renewable-energy resources, believes Johannesburg-based consulting firm MAC Consulting associate director Dave Collins.
He states that the total global population will grow to 9.3-billion by 2050, resulting in urbanisation, which will create a larger energy demand, adding that gas is receiving significant global attention, especially in South Africa, where either gas or nuclear, or both, could replace coal as the main source of electricity.
Fossil fuels contribute 68% of anthropogenic emissions and 82% of the global energy supply, with coal contributing 29%, oil 32% and gas 21% to the global energy mix.
“The average use of fossil fuels as a primary energy source is expected to have increased by 35% from 2010 to 2040. By 2100, the world’s temperature will increase by 3.5 ºC or 4 ºC and we need to reduce the carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Coal can be replaced with modern, efficient gas plants in the medium term,” he says.
There is general international agreement that a rise in the average global temperature from anthropogenic warming should not exceed 2 ºC, however, there is uncertainty about the ability of modern economies to free themselves from their dependence on oil, gas and coal, Collins adds.
In terms of South Africa’s intentions to reduce emissions, the Integrated Resource Plan states that emissions from electricity is capped at 275 Mt/y.
“The use of gas will make coal’s position worse. Improved coal combustion efficiency will reduce coal demand further,” he states.
Gas might be a stepping stone to the global low-carbon economy by reducing emissions, while still providing the energy needed to support the demand of nine-billion people by 2050, Collins concludes.
Collins was a speaker at the Gas Week conference, which was held last month in Bryanston, Johannesburg.