While global air cargo demand in February was down 7.5% in year-on-year terms, it was also 2.9% higher than it had been in February 2019, before the Covid-19. This was reported by the representative body of the global airline industry, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in its latest monthly survey of the sector. In y-o-y terms, international air cargo demand declined 8.3% in February.
“The story of air cargo in February is one of slowing declines,” highlighted IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Year-on-year demand fell by 7.5%. That’s half the rate of decline experienced in January. This shifting of gears was sufficient to boost the overall industry into positive territory (+2.9%) compared with the pre-pandemic levels. An optimistic eye could see the start of an improvement trend that leads to market stabilisation and a return to more normal patterns after dramatic ups-and-downs in recent years.”
Air cargo capacity in February was up 8.6%, y-o-y. This was the result of the increase in airliner belly hold capacity, as the air passenger sector continued its recovery. International belly hold capacity jumped by 57%, y-o-y, in February, recovering to 75.1% of the figure in February 2019.
IATA cited three major economic trends that had a bearing on the air cargo business.
First, one of the leading indicators for air cargo demand, the new export orders element of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), continued to rise in February. Chinese PMI passed the crucial 50-mark, showing that demand for manufactured goods from that country (the world’s number one export economy) was increasing.
Second, the decline in the global goods trade decelerated; in January (y-o-y) it was down 1.5%, but in December last year it had been down 3.3.%.
Third, consumer price index inflation in the Group of Seven leading democratic economies in February was 6.4%, a decrease from the 6.7% recorded in January. Producer price inflation in December (the most recent available data) had been 2.2 percentage points down, to 9.6%.
In terms of IATA’s regions, all but one recorded decelerations in declining demand. The exception was Latin America, where a y-o-y increase in demand of 4.6% in January turned into a 2.7% decrease in February.
For Africa, the y-o-y decrease in February was 3.4%, but in January it had been 9.5%. In the Asia-Pacific, the February decline was 6% but that in January had been 19%. In Europe, the falls had been 15.3% and 20.4% respectively, while for the Middle East they had been 8.1% and 11.8%. For North America, the y-o-y decrease in February had been 3.2%, as against a decline in January of 8.7%.