The International Air Transport Association (Iata) was cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the aviation sector in 2013.
“Business confidence is up. The Eurozone situation is more stable than it was a year-ago and the US avoided the fiscal cliff. Significant headwinds remain. There is no end in sight for high fuel prices and gross domestic product growth is projected at just 2.3%.
“But improved business confidence should help cargo markets to recover the lost ground from 2012. And the momentum built-up at the year-end should see the passenger business expand close to the 5% historical growth trend. 2013 will not be a banner year for profitability, but we should see some improvement on 2012,” Iata director-general and CEO Tony Tyler stated on Friday.
The international body projected 4.5% growth in passenger demand and 1.4% growth for cargo demand for 2013. That would contribute to an improvement in profitability to $8.4-billion in 2013, up from $6.7-billion in 2012.
The latest figures released by Iata showed a 5.3% year-on-year increase in passenger demand and a 1.5% fall for cargo during 2012.
The increase in passenger demand was slightly down on the 2011 growth of 5.9%, but above the 5% 20-year average, while load factors for the year were near record levels at 79.1%.
Passenger demand in international markets expanded at a faster rate of 6%, compared with domestic travel growth of 4%. In both cases emerging markets were the main drivers of growth.
Meanwhile, the 1.5% fall in demand for air cargo, compared with 2011, marked the second consecutive year of decline, following a 0.6% contraction in 2011. The freight load factor for the year was 45.2%.
Air cargo came under pressure from a slowdown in world trade growth, and shifts in the freight commodity mix. Expanding emerging economies have driven demand for bulk items carried by sea, while economic weakness in the West dampened demand for high-value consumer goods transported by air. Freight capacity grew just 0.2% over the year, and the freight load factor was 45.2%.
African airlines experienced significant growth during the year, up 7.5%, as the continent’s economic expansion drove traffic demand. Capacity expansion of 7.1% was just below traffic growth. This improved the load factor to 67.1%, but it was still the weakest of all regions.
Domestic air travel grew by 4% in 2012, with China and Brazil the strongest performers, growing at 9.5% and 8.6%, respectively. India was the weakest with a 2.1% contraction on 2011 levels. Total capacity growth of 3.8% was in line with demand of 4% and the domestic load factor stood at 79.5%.