It was the eightieth day of the year as I sat down to write this piece on March 21 – the first full day of the sign of Aries. In case you are wondering, there are 285 days until the end of the year, and, in another 65 days, it will be Tax Freedom Day. It means that you will need to work up to May 25 to pay all the taxes levied by the South African government for 2018.
If that is not a cheerful enough thought, on the day I wrote this piece, 50 of the 55 countries in Africa signed one of the three proposed legal instruments – the AfCFTA Consolidated Text, the Kigali Declaration and the Free Movement Protocol – which, if you believe the media, are set to open up national borders, thus making Africa the largest trading bloc in the world. This ‘concludes’ a process that started with the signing of the Abuja Treaty in 1991. The proposed trading bloc has the potential to bring over 1.2-billion people together in one market with a combined gross domestic product of more than $3.4-trillion.
The countries that put pen to paper, in order of signature, are: Niger, Rwanda, Angola, the Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, the Republic of Congo, Djibouti, the Gambia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritania, Mozambique, Saharawi, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Côte d’Ivoire, Seychelles, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Morocco, Swaziland, Tanzania, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cabo Verde, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Egypt, Botswana, Namibia, São Tomé and Principe, Togo and Tunisia.
There is an important omission, however. Any guesses? Nigeria – Africa’s second-biggest economy and its most populous – declined to sign the agreement. Its President, Muhammadu Buhari, said: “We will not agree to anything that will undermine local manufacturers and entrepreneurs, or that may lead to Nigeria becoming a dumping ground for finished goods.”
The thing is that, if all countries have not ratified the three proposed legal instruments, the AfCFTA cannot be established. So, contrary to celebratory newspaper headlines, it is very much a case of much ado about nothing. Considering Buhari’s stance, it is difficult to see Nigeria ratifying the legal instruments.
For his part, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa described it as “a new beginning for the continent that will catapult African countries and companies to much higher levels of growth”. This might well be a premature statement, considering Nigeria’s position. Ramaphosa added that “South Africa’s borders need to be open for people – particularly Africans – to move more freely and to promote business”.
The President also commented on calls for a single currency: “Africa is developing in a wonderful way, further on this economic journey, and we will be beginning to interface with the notion and the idea of a single currency. Some even suggested a digital currency, and it is possible that a digital currency will precede a real single currency because it is easier done than having a proper full currency.” The trials and tribulations of the euro are seemingly lost on him.
To those who do not know what a free trade agreement (FTA) really is, it all sounds quite plausible. It is not. An FTA is only about two things: member countries retain their respective external customs tariff (rate of customs duty), while trade between member countries is free of customs duty, provided that the rules of origin, which establish the origin of goods, are adhered to. An FTA has nothing to do with the free movement of people or a single currency.
The obvious question is: Why is South Africa eagerly pursing the AfCFTA when the 15-member Southern African Development Community cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, be considered an economic or commercial success?