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Global steel demand was expected to increase over the next two years, despite recording a slowdown in 2012, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) said on Monday, with emerging economies registering higher growth.
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO) report for 2013 and 2014, worldsteel forecast global demand growth of 3.1%, to 1.48-billion tons. This followed demand growth of 2% in 2012.
Global steel demand would continue its recovery into 2014, as developed economies overall return to positive growth, registering growth of 3.3% to 1.52-billion tons.
“The key risks in the global economy – the eurozone crisis and a hard landing for the Chinese economy – continued to stabilise throughout the last six months,” commented worldsteel economics committee chairperson Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff.
While major emerging economies, particularly India and Brazil, had not performed as hoped, owing to key structural issues, they were now expected to rebound over the next two years.
Brazil, Russia and India collectively showed strong signs of growth, with forecast demand growth of 5.6% to 843-million tons next year, before slowing to 3.3% in 2014.
Public nonresidential construction activity and the introduction of automotive stimulus measures in Russia were expected to boost growth 3.8% to 43.6-million tons in 2013, increasing 4.6% in 2014.
In India, steel demand was expected to grow by 3.4% to 74-million tons in 2013 and by 5.6% in 2014.
Steel demand from China was expected to grow from 2.9% in 2012, to 6% during 2013, delivering 700-million tons of steel, on the back of the Chinese government’s stimulus measures focused on infrastructure, before slowing to 3% as the government’s efforts to rebalance the economy restrained investment activities in 2014, the report noted.
“In Brazil, where the economic performance has been slower than expected to date, modest restocking, coupled with improving capital investment, is expected to bring apparent steel use growth of 3.2% to 26-million tons in 2013 and a further growth of 3.8% to 27-million tons in 2014,” said Jürgen Kerkhoff.
Collectively, emerging economies were expected to deliver 1.09-billions tons of steel during 2013, before slowing down output to 1.13-billion tons of steel the year thereafter.
Steel demand in developed countries was expected to contract 1.6% during 2013, to 384-million tons, before growing by 1.7% in 2014 to demand of 390-million tons.
Worldsteel noted that the economic situation during 2013 in Japan had improved owing to government stimulus measures, resulting in the report revising steel demand upwards to 0.1%.
The organisation also narrowed steel demand growth in the US from 7.8% in 2012, to 0.7% in 2013, while demand in the European Union was expected to contract by 3.8% in 2013, before rebounding to growth of 2.1% in 2014.