The world’s commercial aeroplane fleet – airliners and freighter aircraft – is predicted to grow by more than 180% between now and 2032. This is the forecast of UK civil aviation advisory and research service Ascend. It expects 35 450 new jet and turboprop commercial aircraft to be delivered for passenger and cargo service from this year to 2032. In addition, over the same period, 1 720 airliners currently in service will be converted into freighter aircraft. Of these new deliveries, 18% will be twin-aisle (wide-body) aircraft, 61% single-aisle (narrow-body), 12% regional jets, 7% turborprops and 2% freighters.
Using base values it has calculated for this year, Ascend expects these new orders to be worth some $2 450-billion (or $2.45-trillion). “Base values are used to estimate the future delivery value since these deliver a more pragmatic estimation of actual business value than the inflated manufacturer list prices often used in other forecasts,” states the service.
On the other hand, 14 650 jet and 1 580 turboprop airliners are predicted to be permanently withdrawn from passenger service. Of the 1 720 that will be converted to cargo aircraft, some 1 460 jets and 260 turboprops will be converted to freighters. A few others may be converted for other, noncommercial, roles. (Although Ascend does not suggest what these new roles might be, former commercial aircraft have been converted for military roles such as air-to-air refuelling, or civil noncommercial roles like water, or retardant, bombing of forest fires.) The vast majority will, however, be scrapped and used for spare parts for aircraft remaining in service.
By 2032, the forecast is that commercial aircraft in service worldwide will number 36 050 jet airliners, 4 110 turboprop airliners and 2 820 commercial cargo aircraft. The Asia-Pacific region, including China, is foreseen to continue its higher- than-average economic growth and remain the main driver of new aircraft demand for the next 20 years. It will account for more than 40% of the jets in commercial service in 2032.
On the manufacturing side, the prediction is that the current two biggest producers, Airbus and Boeing, which produce both twin- and single-aisle airliners, will continue to dominate the jet sector and be responsible for 87% of the commercial jets that will be built up to and including 2032. However, Bombardier (based in Canada), Comac (the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China), Embraer (Brazil), Irkut (Russia) and Mitsubishi (Japan) are all foreseen to increase their share of the commercial jet market. These companies all make, or are developing, single-aisle airliners. Between them, they should secure orders worth more than $272-billion. “One or more of these manufacturers could see further increased market share in the latter years of the forecast if they are able to make inroads into the twin-aisle market, which remains the last duopoly in the commercial aircraft sector today,” notes Ascend.
Regarding turboprop aircraft, these are seen a niche products, but this sector will still be worth $53-billion from now to 2032. However, the greater part of this market will be in the larger turboprop segment, with 90-seater aircraft expected to account for nearly 50% of the market. The key point is that, at present, there are no 90-seat turboprops available on the market. “Consequently,” says Ascend, “we expect one or more manufacturers to launch a product for this market shortly.”
Ascend is a research unit of UK aero-space media company Flightglobal, publisher of the renowned 104-year-old Flight International weekly. (Flightglobal is itself part of the Reed Business Information Group.)