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Although global real lending growth picked up slightly to 4.6% in 2013, it may slow in 2014 as a slowdown in emerging markets outside Europe outweighs a weak recovery in the developed world, Ratings agency Fitch said in its latest Macro-Prudential Risk Monitor, released on Thursday.
On the basis of recent and prospective credit growth, macro-prudential risk indicators continued to trend lower in developed countries, with the highest risks largely confined to emerging markets.
A “meagre” 1.3% real credit growth was forecast in the developed world this year after a third year of slight contraction in 2013.
A similar pattern of slow expansion following modest contraction was evident in emerging Europe, said the report, where real credit growth was forecast to pick up to 3.7% this year after swinging to a positive 2.4% last year.
Elsewhere, credit growth remained more robust, but continued to slow in Asia and Latin America and was forecast to moderate in the Middle East and Africa in 2014, after a strong increase in 2013.
Last year saw a more than doubling in real credit growth in the Middle East and Africa to 8.3%, but growth was forecast to fall back this year to 5.8%.
“The pick-up was marked in some of the larger economies; Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria in sub-Saharan Africa,and Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in the Middle East and North Africa. Some of these countries are forecast to see material slowdowns this year,” Fitch noted.