Photo by: Bloomberg
The South African Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s (Sacci’s) Business Confidence Index (BCI) had one of its worst performances month-on-month in November, with none of the subindices improving on their October levels and six subindices maintaining the previous month’s levels.
The BCI dipped by 0.3 index points to 90.8 in November from 91.1 in October, which was the first time since August that the index dipped below 91.
The BCI was 0.9 index points lower than in November 2012 and it was the lowest November reading for the Sacci BCI since November 1999, when the index stood at 90.4. The November BCI was 9.2 index points below the 2010 base-year level of 100 and 31.3 index points below the peak of 122.1 in December 2006.
Six subindices of the BCI did not change meaningfully between October and November, but seven had a negative impact on the BCI compared with only three in October. Six of the seven subindices on real activity were negative month-on-month, while only one financial subindex was negative and the other five were neutral.
Year-on-year, four subindices made positive contributions to the BCI and nine had a negative impact, with major activities like imports, manufacturing output, retail sales, new vehicle sales and construction all being in negative territory in November. Exports made a positive contribution.
Sacci noted, with unease, that the South African economy was experiencing difficult times on the demand as well as the supply side. Gross domestic product growth slowed, while real gross domestic expenditure and export volumes did not perform well enough to stimulate the economy to perform closer to its potential. The gridlocked economic environment adversely affected business and investor confidence.
“If gross domestic fixed investment does not take place at a pace strong enough to propel the economy to higher levels in the short to medium term, investor confidence needs to be nurtured to a substantially greater extent than is currently the case,” said Sacci.
Households, all spheres of government and the private sector had all been impacted by suboptimal economic performance, noted the chamber, adding that “the challenges presenting themselves in our domestic economy may take on more serious structural dimensions if not addressed urgently and coherently”.